TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$744,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$740,195

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $744,856 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Nets52c414,438$214,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214,164.3310049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hawks48c143,334$68,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,532.3566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks49c41,340$20,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,275.634,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Hawks50c39,855$19,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,953.54860.4%29 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Hawks49c37,915$18,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,269.724847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Hawks48c26,995$12,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,037.41,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Hawks52c24,766$12,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,887.4910949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Nets49c20,357$9,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,975.1348343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks50c18,000$8,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0902,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nets48c17,959$8,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,623.141,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Nets51c17,316$8,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,83114842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Hawks49c16,674$8,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,503.5848352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Hawks50c16,030$7,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,055.466746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks49c15,102$7,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,708.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Hawks52c14,619$7,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,017.7238251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Hawks49c13,635$6,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,953.872,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Hawks51c11,678$5,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,722.3316346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa75…f082backed Hawks52c10,459$5,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,020.361729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Nets48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9649244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb66a…800ebacked Hawks52c9,712$5,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,661.76955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b6f…ce60backed Hawks48c9,700$4,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0442161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nets49c9,622$4,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,714.771,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks50c9,061$4,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,544.124,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks49c8,522$4,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,340.594,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Hawks49c8,200$4,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,181.9116249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Nets51c8,147$4,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,126.390650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Hawks49c8,143$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,152.9114946.3%69 W · 80 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Hawks51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,919.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Nets51c7,002$3,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,571.211,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks51c5,460$2,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,675.462,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks48c5,384$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,791.516,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Hawks49c5,254$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.4113946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nets51c5,087$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,597.441,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Hawks48c4,000$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,070.5728643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Hawks49c3,996$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.967451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Hawks49c3,957$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.938647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks48c3,665$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.725,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks49c3,462$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.243,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Nets50c3,389$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.221,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hawks51c3,100$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.992,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Hawks51c3,095$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.6718444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Hawks48c2,982$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.5922643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Hawks49c2,455$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.0714940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Hawks66c2,278$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.492,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Hawks50c2,231$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.554050%20 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Hawks49c2,202$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.9870246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Hawks50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Nets49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7067…e41ebacked Hawks51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9801338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Nets49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks51c1,765$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.852,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Nets51c1,756$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.8944551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Hawks49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.9844252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Hawks49c1,454$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.5915753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Nets36c1,403$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.4821443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Nets49c1,290$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.511,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Nets51c1,219$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.2371654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa583…2928backed Nets49c1,158$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.22737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Hawks52c1,126$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.151,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hawks49c1,061$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.825,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Hawks51c1,036$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.4631643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Hawks49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5102,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Hawks48c990$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.824151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Nets49c969.4$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.0162948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf594…bfc1backed Nets51c955.91$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.769553.7%51 W · 44 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Hawks51c951.57$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.2759140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Hawks52c934.16$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.5652760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Nets51c881.74$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.6956447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cfa…9743backed Hawks49c875.37$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.444045%18 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Nets49c850.7$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.8411235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Hawks57c684.18$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.519843.9%43 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Hawks51c679.42$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.927454.1%40 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Nets50c673.91$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.651,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3252,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Hawks50c594.22$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.7181349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Hawks51c594.03$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.216333.3%21 W · 42 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Nets50c580.16$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Nets52c569.57$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5434953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Nets51c567.4$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2435052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Nets51c567.4$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2451647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Hawks49c543.32$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.2229344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5303…83e6backed Nets51c494.82$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.366647%31 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4363…d6e0backed Nets45c454.49$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.5213540.7%55 W · 80 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd8c…f75abacked Nets50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1943253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd7…eac9backed Nets49c387.76$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Nets49c387.76$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19011451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe626…839ebacked Nets52c382.06$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.672744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Nets51c377.08$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1841449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Hawks49c356.26$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.1791746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Nets50c352.9$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9811033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d6…4af7backed Hawks52c351.53$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.075269.2%36 W · 16 L+11.8wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+53.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3a28…cf73backed Nets49c334.94$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.121127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Hawks50c332.48$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.2427645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Nets51c321.8$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.4325049.6%124 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Hawks50c321.15$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7393543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets50c315.51$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.443,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Hawks49c306.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.2340146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Hawks49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.121,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Hawks49c306$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.0647436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Hawks56c304.2$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.1195049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.