NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf46048fd110bd549530dfce29f1a4026e9fce7347b7b6cdc361e3795879d4813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Nets | 53c | 7,845$4,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,157.59 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 47c | 4,496$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,394.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 47c | 3,675$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.43 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Hawks | 48c | 2,400$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.96 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nets | 54c | 1,833$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.61 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 46c | 1,709$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Hawks | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 54c | 1,186$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4627backed Hawks | 47c | 1,030$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Hawks | 47c | 699.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.49 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Hawks | 44c | 699.98$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d9…56c4backed Hawks | 47c | 587.1$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.16 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Nets | 54c | 564.78$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.71 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Nets | 54c | 551.46$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Nets | 54c | 551.46$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Hawks | 47c | 425.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.52 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Hawks | 54c | 335.35$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.66 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nets | 48c | 302.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 55c | 195.53$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Nets | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Nets | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…de1ebacked Nets | 55c | 177.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 179 | 44.1%79 W · 100 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets | 51c | 172.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks | 50c | 162.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Hawks | 47c | 153.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Hawks | 48c | 150.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Nets | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Hawks | 45c | 126.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nets | 52c | 106.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Hawks | 52c | 102.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Nets | 54c | 90.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Hawks | 49c | 88.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Hawks | 51c | 85.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Hawks | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Hawks | 48c | 62.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Hawks | 58c | 60.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Hawks | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Hawks | 46c | 58.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee87…28edbacked Nets | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c6…40babacked Nets | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…0a3bbacked Hawks | 49c | 48.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9e…f670backed Nets | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Nets | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Hawks | 46c | 44.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Hawks | 60c | 41.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Hawks | 48c | 41.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…b31bbacked Hawks | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Hawks | 45c | 36.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hawks | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hawks | 47c | 21.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-17.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. NetsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-14.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-15.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-16.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-18.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-21.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-24.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.