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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NRGof NRG, 100 Thieves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$192,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65c1…2988backed 100 Thieves36c45,899$16,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,523.6226255%144 W · 118 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked NRG64c28,447$18,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,347.791346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed NRG64c24,000$15,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,64452455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked 100 Thieves37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5505358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 100 Thieves37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,549.9929555.9%165 W · 130 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked NRG64c13,906$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,006.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked NRG64c5,600$3,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01633153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed 100 Thieves32c4,151$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.694438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed NRG64c3,490$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.42347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed 100 Thieves36c2,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90028548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked NRG79c2,064$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.23666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked 100 Thieves29c1,883$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.5579044.3%350 W · 440 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x254b…e8abbacked NRG63c1,809$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34e…d4d5backed 100 Thieves18c1,633$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed NRG63c1,619$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.9517939.7%71 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed 100 Thieves36c1,600$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.9933348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed 100 Thieves38c1,549$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.3170%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed NRG64c1,328$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.136527.7%18 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 100 Thieves25c1,257$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.2868658.3%400 W · 286 L+56.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed 100 Thieves36c1,162$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.244647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed NRG68c1,088$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.7328940.8%118 W · 171 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked 100 Thieves38c1,019$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.23253.1%17 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+57.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked NRG64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36024457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked NRG69c997.64$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3513759.9%82 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed 100 Thieves26c981.63$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3519337.8%73 W · 120 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed NRG64c938.05$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.056755.2%37 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked 100 Thieves13c888.46$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 100 Thieves30c888.46$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.541,42851.2%731 W · 697 L+48.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked NRG79c846$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.451,37039%534 W · 836 L-59.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed NRG64c827.66$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.662147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked NRG76c800.11$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.931,31843.9%578 W · 740 L-44.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked 100 Thieves25c790.84$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7297445.1%439 W · 535 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed NRG72c768.4$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.1818056.1%101 W · 79 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked 100 Thieves38c751.24$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5324846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed 100 Thieves36c749.73$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.933942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked 100 Thieves38c678.95$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25829833.2%99 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked NRG68c666.87$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2265759.4%390 W · 267 L+50.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked 100 Thieves30c662.78$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3935142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 100 Thieves26c635$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8354055.4%299 W · 241 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed NRG63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22219656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2655…eaa4backed 100 Thieves21c578.95$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.627930.4%24 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ec…64b6backed NRG64c578.13$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.136028.3%17 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked 100 Thieves25c575.58$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0668949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd20…24dabacked 100 Thieves18c557.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.825523.6%13 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed 100 Thieves37c550.66$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.787445.9%34 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked 100 Thieves10c523.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025836.8%95 W · 163 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed 100 Thieves25c510.21$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5732562.8%204 W · 121 L+32.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed 100 Thieves37c500.01$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.59443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed 100 Thieves36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1804926.5%13 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed 100 Thieves37c499.98$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.995846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed NRG63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.193650%18 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4702…5d04backed 100 Thieves29c455.26$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.272441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed NRG66c452.14$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.28646.5%40 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed 100 Thieves37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14818349.7%91 W · 92 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed 100 Thieves18c388.89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010225.5%26 W · 76 L-10.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe454…8b7dbacked NRG77c388.56$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.868058.8%47 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x616f…e14cbacked NRG63c382.78$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.633467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 100 Thieves21c366.66$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1355142.3%233 W · 318 L-13.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed 100 Thieves36c342.63$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4227345.4%124 W · 149 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed 100 Thieves37c316.36$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0525956.4%146 W · 113 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 100 Thieves33c303.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0693848%450 W · 488 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked NRG63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11186747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed NRG63c288.46$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7312755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked 100 Thieves24c270.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3421136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf489…4cb0backed NRG64c270$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.21181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked NRG79c263.88$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8690244.3%400 W · 502 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed 100 Thieves37c262.91$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.342540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed 100 Thieves23c262.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5226932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed NRG62c256.15$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5133946.3%157 W · 182 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed NRG59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.241050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 100 Thieves29c252.09$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.611,28432.1%412 W · 872 L-67.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc995…5e2ebacked NRG76c251.3$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.33100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b2…70f0backed 100 Thieves10c249.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257020%14 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d44…0705backed NRG66c245.54$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f84…98f1backed NRG64c234.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.385358.5%31 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked 100 Thieves18c232$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2655637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked 100 Thieves29c226.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6216034.4%55 W · 105 L-13.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked 100 Thieves21c225$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2514534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked 100 Thieves21c223.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1731035.2%109 W · 201 L-24.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed NRG63c219.05$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.058739.1%34 W · 53 L-11.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed NRG69c210.32$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6232152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed NRG64c201.14$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4142840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aae…0da3backed NRG63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x497f…43e4backed NRG71c194.42$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed 100 Thieves27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x820b…d27abacked 100 Thieves35c184.7$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9410743%46 W · 61 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c9…3831backed 100 Thieves39c181.79$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.85850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked NRG63c174.79$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.674864.6%31 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked 100 Thieves26c172.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.376647%31 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed 100 Thieves30c171.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2528241.1%116 W · 166 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed NRG59c170.94$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.098844.3%39 W · 49 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked NRG63c169.84$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8418754%101 W · 86 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed NRG63c168.13$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2118747.6%89 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed NRG70c165.55$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1153359.3%316 W · 217 L+42.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed NRG63c160$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.243859.1%259 W · 179 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d3…c0d1backed NRG63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7322457.6%129 W · 95 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed NRG63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.736446.9%30 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed NRG64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.254346.5%20 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1743…0ddcbacked NRG64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cb…7284backed NRG64c154.69$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.69580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.