Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0acefec26fdf66c73f1904368f80d011029c003edcbb42efb5013432374d4f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRGof NRG, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed NRG | 50c | 6,300$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150.22 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 2,998$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked NRG | 39c | 505$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.2 | 244 | 57.8%141 W · 103 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 399.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 382$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed 100 Thieves | 63c | 351.53$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -7.2wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed 100 Thieves | 65c | 278.01$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 266$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked NRG | 43c | 225.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked NRG | 36c | 193.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 175.57$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…98f1backed NRG | 39c | 154.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…c0aebacked 100 Thieves | 56c | 130.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed NRG | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed 100 Thieves | 57c | 79.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked 100 Thieves | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…c6e0backed NRG | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 31.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…2988backed 100 Thieves | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 255 | 54.9%140 W · 115 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978f…e14dbacked NRG | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 PlayoffsNRG won
- Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 WinnerNRG won
- Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 WinnerNRG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.