TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc995…5e2e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
207
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Valorant, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Valorant at 54 out of 100; worst CS2 at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT13060.8%79 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 130 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$39.27
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+26%+$27.3
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$23.25
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffsbacked Winthrop University · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$34.01
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winnerbacked NRG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 3 Winnerbacked NRG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$27
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winnerbacked NRG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$36.93
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winnerbacked NRG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 4 Winnerbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 2 Winnerbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$22.12
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$109.33
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winnerbacked Estral Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffsbacked Estral Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winnerbacked Estral Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.78
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winnerbacked LOS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffsbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$144.1
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffsbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+71%+$90.84
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffsbacked Supernova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
LoL: Winthrop University vs Maryville University (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffsbacked Winthrop University · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+190.2%+$95.1
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$51.16
LoL: CCG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffsbacked CCG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+58%+$64.92
LoL: CCG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winnerbacked CCG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$30.67
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winnerbacked Solary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$40.47
Showing 25 of 130 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT5147.1%24 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
CS2 — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Brute - Map 2 Winnerbacked ALGO Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stagebacked SPARTA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Bbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group Abacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group Bbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$20.22
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stagebacked MIBR Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winnerbacked fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$13.01
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stagebacked Ursa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.31
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$71.95
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$52.7
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.57
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffsbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Bbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.92
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winnerbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winnerbacked Sinners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Bbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$66.51
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$36.59
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22.56
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)backed Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Ivan Erslan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$61.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.