TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Natus Vincere, Vitality
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$314,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$364,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,676 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere31c17,002$5,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,188.622,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere38c13,434$5,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,079.195,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked Natus Vincere27c11,159$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,013.66947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3936…366dbacked Vitality72c10,071$7,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.462944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Natus Vincere23c8,888$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,073.4620249.5%100 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere57c8,828$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.1315050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Natus Vincere29c8,789$2,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.3541340.2%166 W · 247 L-2.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Vitality65c6,734$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.8812454%67 W · 57 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Vitality76c6,318$4,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.22,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vitality72c5,962$4,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.731,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere34c5,785$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.721,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vitality67c5,698$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.8989546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Vitality68c4,905$3,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.81,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Natus Vincere27c4,826$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.910550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed Natus Vincere38c4,250$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.991770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Vitality69c4,166$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.7623343.8%102 W · 131 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vitality69c4,129$2,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.561,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere17c3,968$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.323,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa503…c5b9backed Natus Vincere28c3,843$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.932240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere33c3,362$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.952,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Natus Vincere31c3,115$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.6510442.3%44 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1d…8b42backed Vitality72c3,097$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.561566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Natus Vincere46c3,084$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.6955343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Vitality68c2,947$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.165052%26 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Vitality75c2,890$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.4287847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Vitality73c2,740$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.731,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Vitality69c2,500$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.422934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Vitality54c2,450$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.517162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Vitality42c2,312$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.920141.8%84 W · 117 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Natus Vincere30c2,300$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69375545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Vitality79c2,267$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.0440558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Vitality73c2,079$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.3565351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality72c2,015$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.1176657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Vitality62c2,000$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.729248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Natus Vincere28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56011434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed Vitality70c1,937$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.529250%46 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Vitality72c1,887$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.347450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa113…284ebacked Natus Vincere44c1,852$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.4420935.4%74 W · 135 L-21.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Vitality69c1,694$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.149542.1%40 W · 55 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Natus Vincere26c1,630$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.798938.2%34 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed Vitality71c1,602$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.8618056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Vitality49c1,600$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.5928657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Vitality54c1,589$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.224940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Natus Vincere31c1,571$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.0340148.4%194 W · 207 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Vitality54c1,560$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.42944.8%13 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed Natus Vincere44c1,395$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61111843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere24c1,381$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.4678939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Vitality73c1,363$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.015749.1%28 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Vitality75c1,339$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.6115970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed Natus Vincere28c1,334$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.5811243.8%49 W · 63 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Natus Vincere22c1,323$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28553737.1%199 W · 338 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Natus Vincere49c1,305$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.2910254.9%56 W · 46 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vitality44c1,290$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.095,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Natus Vincere52c1,286$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6661,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Natus Vincere47c1,261$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.2933452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Vitality65c1,228$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.734,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Vitality56c1,208$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.1824935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Natus Vincere30c1,178$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35011133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Vitality65c1,169$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.0919342.5%82 W · 111 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Natus Vincere27c1,163$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31414451.4%74 W · 70 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Vitality73c1,150$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.572560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed Vitality60c1,123$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.0822358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36a7…b6e9backed Natus Vincere49c1,110$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.37887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick57cpaid+54.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe36c…a856backed Vitality55c1,087$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.439238%35 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Natus Vincere28c1,067$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.795,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Natus Vincere25c1,062$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5429831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Vitality70c1,026$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.091,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Vitality74c1,004$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.5923172.3%167 W · 64 L+27.0wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere25c1,000$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24545859%270 W · 188 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed Vitality42c1,000$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.5916749.1%82 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Natus Vincere28c999$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7250043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9976…59acbacked Natus Vincere29c979$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.324148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere37c933.8$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.717,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere31c928.25$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.284,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Vitality65c901.55$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.7320958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Vitality65c896.37$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.131,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Vitality62c891.55$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.426475%198 W · 66 L+24.2wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Vitality80c880.08$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.0812642.9%54 W · 72 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Vitality72c872.01$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.051,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed Vitality54c869.79$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.1118356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Vitality56c854.92$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.6932832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Vitality53c837.76$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.332346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Vitality51c801.4$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.5950846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e8…9a67backed Vitality56c767.47$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.011855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed8…eb23backed Natus Vincere24c740.63$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.752556%14 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c61…c3c9backed Vitality74c730$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.81050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31db…c25fbacked Natus Vincere42c714.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008360.2%50 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20053545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere32c707.13$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.376,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Vitality72c700.91$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.124374.4%32 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c2…1e3abacked Vitality80c685.31$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.064575.6%34 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Vitality73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9398856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Vitality69c672$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3213357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x565a…3207backed Natus Vincere33c667.73$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.812347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Vitality50c665.76$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.8850341.6%209 W · 294 L+1.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Vitality77c655.77$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9539468%268 W · 126 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Vitality55c652.2$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.4936837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Vitality62c649.2$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.250050.6%253 W · 247 L+2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Natus Vincere26c648.85$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.731253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Natus Vincere18c625$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11514037.1%52 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.