TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Vitality
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$343,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880b…c98bbacked Natus Vincere37c40,664$15,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,526.5941340.2%166 W · 247 L-2.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Vitality62c36,137$22,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,440.6215050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere47c13,285$6,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,008.533,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Vitality61c13,000$7,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,929.9412653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere47c11,672$5,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,190.822,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed Natus Vincere40c10,034$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,034.351770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Vitality65c9,058$5,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,885.3118243.4%79 W · 103 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Vitality62c8,531$5,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,289.1323355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked Natus Vincere38c8,250$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1156947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Vitality20c8,000$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61033452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Natus Vincere59c6,561$3,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,687.4233359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fe…cfd7backed Natus Vincere39c6,251$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,813.25444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Vitality59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.988043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Vitality62c4,744$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,948.5365351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Vitality66c4,488$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.235052%26 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Natus Vincere38c4,386$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.960540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa503…c5b9backed Natus Vincere38c4,258$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,641.222240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed Natus Vincere47c4,043$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.559250%46 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Natus Vincere39c4,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,44031253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vitality50c3,849$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.0889546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere48c3,589$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.75,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Vitality59c3,403$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Natus Vincere38c3,350$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.331,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Vitality67c3,092$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.315,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Vitality66c3,005$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.657450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe078…0de5backed Vitality42c2,821$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.66616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Natus Vincere37c2,723$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.310044%44 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vitality49c2,528$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.831,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Natus Vincere36c2,457$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.882944.8%13 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Vitality54c2,320$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25320141.8%84 W · 117 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Vitality52c2,215$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.9460853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Vitality22c2,096$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.2212454%67 W · 57 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere35c2,009$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.8678939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Vitality57c2,006$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.111,37766.4%914 W · 463 L+77.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Natus Vincere39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.9975545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fdb…9e7abacked Natus Vincere78c1,974$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Natus Vincere36c1,912$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.7432542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Vitality53c1,750$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.3948437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed Vitality61c1,713$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.611843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Vitality52c1,707$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.62,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vitality50c1,644$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.021,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Vitality53c1,639$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87046565.6%305 W · 160 L+0.5wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Vitality65c1,607$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.2639468%268 W · 126 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x836c…acffbacked Vitality63c1,593$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.152040%8 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Natus Vincere47c1,553$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.0355343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x008b…c1cfbacked Natus Vincere32c1,550$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.996355.6%35 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Vitality55c1,500$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.469248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Vitality50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75021251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere34c1,500$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.9997240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed Natus Vincere52c1,491$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.436245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Vitality55c1,480$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.0626475%198 W · 66 L+24.2wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Vitality62c1,400$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86817162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Natus Vincere39c1,330$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.894546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x932c…8658backed Vitality25c1,300$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3207243.1%31 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Vitality51c1,290$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.5787847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153f…61bebacked Vitality57c1,250$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Natus Vincere34c1,250$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82524935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Vitality60c1,204$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.222,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Natus Vincere39c1,200$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73232346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Vitality68c1,097$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.075,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Vitality62c1,093$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.717,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Vitality61c1,085$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.7550341.6%209 W · 294 L+1.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Vitality61c1,061$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.1917345.7%79 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Vitality61c1,047$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.4823343.8%102 W · 131 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Natus Vincere39c1,019$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.3736240.3%146 W · 216 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Vitality65c1,015$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.649542.1%40 W · 55 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61045859%270 W · 188 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Natus Vincere34c999.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.9930527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Vitality61c977.3$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.144,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Natus Vincere36c936.94$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.6411740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere57c924.17$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.621,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Natus Vincere43c890.73$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.228453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Natus Vincere43c862.05$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.0929831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Vitality54c828.98$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.224,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Vitality18c809.95$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5355845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Vitality55c799.98$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43640558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere55c793.4$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.3235643%153 W · 203 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Vitality53c751.95$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014037.9%53 W · 87 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Vitality62c750$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46559841.3%247 W · 351 L-20.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Vitality66c750$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a8…48c0backed Vitality65c749.99$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.4925251.2%129 W · 123 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d87…a82bbacked Natus Vincere38c749.96$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.975244.2%23 W · 29 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Vitality51c724.74$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.231,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Natus Vincere51c712.98$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3824349%119 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Natus Vincere36c699.97$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.9850846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbb…86ebbacked Natus Vincere34c691.79$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+131.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Natus Vincere38c686.81$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.5540148.4%194 W · 207 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Natus Vincere31c647.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.1117450.6%88 W · 86 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Natus Vincere47c625.22$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.6217861.2%109 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9976…59acbacked Vitality45c620$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.594148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere51c600.71$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.581,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Vitality50c600.69$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020344.3%90 W · 113 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Vitality51c599.88$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.861,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed Vitality53c589.32$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3411243.8%49 W · 63 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Natus Vincere35c576.85$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.9511439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Natus Vincere35c571.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.438138.3%31 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere44c562.26$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.974,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a6…5d97backed Natus Vincere47c550$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.55052%26 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Vitality56c550$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.0228657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0d…5a51backed Vitality70c538.78$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.582055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.