TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of Dplus KIA, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$564,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$623,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 606 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafd4…7e61backed T168c32,889$22,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,434.481,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Dplus KIA36c29,301$10,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,653.782,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked T137c22,843$8,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,423.2767760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked T167c20,407$13,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,709.282,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49cf…1cdebacked T166c20,008$13,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,839.72552%13 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ed…5dc7backed Dplus KIA28c17,611$4,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,930.943953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Dplus KIA29c17,500$5,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,154.9957246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed T167c15,994$10,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,33891854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Dplus KIA39c15,901$6,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,252.2446637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1887…f75dbacked T168c13,394$9,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,252.0712945.7%59 W · 70 L-12.8wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Dplus KIA30c13,124$3,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,873.1713632.4%44 W · 92 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Dplus KIA28c11,111$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.061,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Dplus KIA37c10,130$3,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,748.137147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x468c…d7cabacked Dplus KIA38c9,773$3,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,720.623844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0bb8…aa5fbacked Dplus KIA1c8,888$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.882261.8%4 W · 222 L-0.5wins0.00per pick2cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Dplus KIA25c8,818$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.1335848.9%175 W · 183 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked T172c8,564$6,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.418953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1956…750ebacked Dplus KIA39c8,551$3,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,344450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked T172c8,500$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.9867250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Dplus KIA59c8,013$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,690.251,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed T170c7,150$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.9682953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Dplus KIA75c7,105$5,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,347.252848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed T163c7,094$4,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,636.121,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Dplus KIA75c7,056$5,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,292.439964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed T171c5,669$4,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.241,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…6b59backed Dplus KIA1c5,555$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5516511.5%19 W · 146 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+70.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Dplus KIA28c5,555$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.3981143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked T172c5,551$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.771057%405 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Dplus KIA60c5,001$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9751348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Dplus KIA9c5,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Dplus KIA29c4,731$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.0925143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed T168c4,551$3,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.5615453.9%83 W · 71 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed T172c4,545$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.721,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed T133c4,163$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.1619041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Dplus KIA28c3,968$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11159248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked T164c3,921$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.4521753.9%117 W · 100 L-0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed T157c3,847$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.4767276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed Dplus KIA38c3,723$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.2848533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Dplus KIA51c3,440$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.862,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Dplus KIA38c3,219$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.911,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfe…2ac7backed T163c3,175$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.67843.6%34 W · 44 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Dplus KIA29c3,172$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92037640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked T164c3,132$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.2932555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Dplus KIA53c3,054$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.4344550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked T169c3,036$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.6498956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed T172c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84054756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked T132c3,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.989248.9%45 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Dplus KIA36c3,000$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.978045%36 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Dplus KIA74c2,989$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20029846.6%139 W · 159 L-19.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Dplus KIA41c2,897$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.8841439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8896…7c53backed Dplus KIA70c2,859$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.6918561.1%113 W · 72 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Dplus KIA35c2,835$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013333.8%45 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Dplus KIA48c2,714$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.0775342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed Dplus KIA71c2,642$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.5115356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Dplus KIA51c2,638$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.321,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Dplus KIA34c2,579$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.2711145%50 W · 61 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Dplus KIA28c2,558$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.5447838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bac…6fb7backed Dplus KIA31c2,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77518633.3%62 W · 124 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Dplus KIA34c2,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Dplus KIA32c2,406$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.786943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e0…ffbebacked Dplus KIA75c2,377$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.768767.8%59 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Dplus KIA2c2,375$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451541.9%3 W · 151 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed Dplus KIA30c2,333$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70026661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed T129c2,250$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.481,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed T137c2,232$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.1685652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Dplus KIA30c2,113$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.019750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed T172c2,104$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.091,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed T124c2,077$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.5849461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked T132c2,074$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.3650242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed T172c2,001$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.281,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed T167c2,000$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67046257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Dplus KIA32c1,990$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.0455639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed T165c1,902$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.7115357.5%88 W · 65 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Dplus KIA34c1,798$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.032,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed T136c1,783$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.0628859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed T168c1,754$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.0910046%46 W · 54 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Dplus KIA33c1,726$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.5311753%62 W · 55 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Dplus KIA51c1,717$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.6543358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Dplus KIA30c1,672$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed T165c1,664$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.542055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed T173c1,655$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.5558850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb143…f649backed Dplus KIA30c1,643$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.747848.7%38 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Dplus KIA29c1,641$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.0320036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Dplus KIA34c1,600$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54487844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1090…3ad3backed Dplus KIA66c1,580$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.4811243.8%49 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed T155c1,531$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.7260053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Dplus KIA19c1,528$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.291,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Dplus KIA3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459227.2%25 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Dplus KIA66c1,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9901,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817c…0817backed T154c1,500$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.3412045%54 W · 66 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12c…ed3dbacked T133c1,500$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.6512649.2%62 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Dplus KIA35c1,420$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49732939.8%131 W · 198 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked T132c1,412$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.4724326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed Dplus KIA39c1,388$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.2619553.3%104 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Dplus KIA34c1,360$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.851,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Dplus KIA5c1,350$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed Dplus KIA1c1,330$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+89.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Dplus KIA1c1,330$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.940916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Dplus KIA1c1,330$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.92181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed T166c1,250$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4251,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.