World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Jewish" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe987a9d4d04c4c01718eee7e3f1dbc00493594d5d3289815d05233a35c68424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 60c | 124.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 59c | 95.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 59c | 90.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +348.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 59c | 85.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 59c | 46.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…a6c5backed No | 58c | 34.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 37c | 34.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…5e2ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 42c | 28.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 50c | 28.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 55c | 25.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 48c | 20.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Jewish" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "Anti-Semitism" or "Anti-Semitic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Goon" or "Gooner" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Green" or "Greens" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Honorable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Investment" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Political Stunt" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Russian" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "U-turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.