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Lol · resolved market

LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Convictionof Supernova, Conviction
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,682 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Conviction64c12,802$8,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,611.9492254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42fc…7192backed Supernova47c4,750$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe940…ce19backed Conviction53c4,689$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Supernova40c4,262$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.231,01447.6%483 W · 531 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed Conviction55c2,744$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.8915357.5%88 W · 65 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Supernova33c2,661$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.11,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Conviction69c2,572$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.2221556.7%122 W · 93 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…0e69backed Supernova43c2,546$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1065244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51c…5bbcbacked Supernova45c2,239$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Supernova11c1,521$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.71,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Supernova36c1,173$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.3348338.7%187 W · 296 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Supernova1c1,159$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.591541.9%3 W · 151 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Supernova41c1,017$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.731,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Supernova1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Supernova1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Conviction42c992.91$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.8946258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Supernova26c917$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.6560053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Supernova52c801.88$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4151,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Supernova49c773.4$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.240446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Supernova40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014243.7%62 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Supernova36c748.03$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.791,24439.7%494 W · 750 L-69.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…284ebacked Supernova47c721.94$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Supernova46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32217439.1%68 W · 106 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Supernova21c682.71$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8896350.2%483 W · 480 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Supernova12c665$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0445618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…4b19backed Conviction56c628.79$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.79666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Supernova48c627$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9682954.5%452 W · 377 L+3.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Supernova40c624.04$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.761,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Conviction80c620.26$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0152538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Supernova45c607.29$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.2813454.5%73 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked Supernova30c602.54$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18029944.1%132 W · 167 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd5…da36backed Supernova42c578.16$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9f…31e3backed Supernova35c572.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe592…74adbacked Conviction54c545.07$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.186443.8%28 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Conviction49c506.19$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5230357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Supernova40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008967.4%60 W · 29 L+13.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Supernova41c478.82$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3241343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Supernova39c436.92$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.742,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef2…4e03backed Conviction54c428$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.692466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Supernova33c422.75$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5733125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09c4…9b44backed Conviction65c421.56$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Supernova10c414$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.41,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf72…f8bcbacked Conviction55c384.74$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.0414257%81 W · 61 L+12.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Conviction52c361.81$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4337933.5%127 W · 252 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ffc…cfabbacked Conviction42c358.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4523740.5%96 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b3…a28dbacked Conviction57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8818065%117 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1654…64b9backed Supernova9c350$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Conviction57c341.14$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.5532542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x690d…70adbacked Supernova43c340.26$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Conviction59c320.05$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0547953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6cd…286bbacked Supernova48c284.34$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Supernova49c280.17$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2432160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed Conviction55c266.5$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2636749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed Supernova36c258.27$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9319335.2%68 W · 125 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Supernova43c257.35$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0375342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Supernova19c250$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6223831.5%75 W · 163 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed Supernova56c249.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9938659.8%231 W · 155 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Conviction70c234.3$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.191,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Supernova34c220$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.676129%221 W · 540 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b85…c314backed Supernova46c219.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008065%52 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…7db2backed Supernova36c208.68$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7612536%45 W · 80 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8aa…0ae3backed Conviction68c208.41$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4144470%311 W · 133 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Supernova44c202.21$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2740145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x805b…ee0cbacked Supernova37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.253243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee8b…21a6backed Conviction80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Conviction56c197.53$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.471,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3308…b3debacked Supernova24c196.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485234.6%18 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7a…aaaebacked Conviction53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6826151.7%135 W · 126 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Conviction70c188.57$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5718254.9%100 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe93c…76ebbacked Conviction56c181.22$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.428242.7%35 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Conviction56c180$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.271157%405 W · 306 L+40.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Supernova14c179.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,24652.6%656 W · 590 L+4.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Supernova44c177.51$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6723848.7%116 W · 122 L-15.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Conviction74c173.83$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4532755.7%182 W · 145 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Conviction58c173.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0225853.5%138 W · 120 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e4…7161backed Supernova34c170.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.933622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed Supernova44c168.86$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.34560%27 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Supernova43c167$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8121334.7%74 W · 139 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Supernova42c166.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Conviction57c166.67$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6741945.1%189 W · 230 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Supernova22c164.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.521,60817.5%282 W · 1,326 L-245.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Conviction71c160$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.29855.1%54 W · 44 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Supernova21c160$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.332,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Supernova19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047630.7%146 W · 330 L-13.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa485…a7d5backed Conviction57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.525345.8%116 W · 137 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Conviction69c149.5$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.681,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Conviction68c147.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4235545.4%161 W · 194 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Supernova45c142.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.961,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Supernova34c142.5$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.641,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Supernova50c135.44$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4686943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Supernova41c123.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2355744%245 W · 312 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc995…5e2ebacked Supernova49c122.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013060.8%79 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Conviction59c114.64$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.261,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed Supernova49c110$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.96418.8%12 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8d0…f87ebacked Supernova46c106.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1940340.9%165 W · 238 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Supernova26c106.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.851,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a61…bbb2backed Conviction52c105.92$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9232142.1%135 W · 186 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Supernova64c105.08$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6780750.8%410 W · 397 L+48.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Supernova48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4849451.8%256 W · 238 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Supernova47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4763646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.