Lol · resolved market
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ac757cb85486b0240e1e7f116882f068f6822e310ebbf8a33f697e384e1b4fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Convictionof Supernova, Conviction
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Supernova | 42c | 1,690$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.47 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…26e8backed Supernova | 49c | 823.29$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.03 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Conviction | 59c | 779.29$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.79 | 390 | 55.4%216 W · 174 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Supernova | 50c | 538.61$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.1 | 321 | 60.7%195 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Conviction | 57c | 512.06$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.7 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…137dbacked Conviction | 56c | 301.79$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…4292backed Supernova | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Conviction | 52c | 300$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…930fbacked Conviction | 53c | 292.8$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.62 | 1,216 | 44.4%540 W · 676 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Conviction | 60c | 270.22$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 1,019 | 55.8%569 W · 450 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Conviction | 56c | 267.05$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 698 | 41.8%292 W · 406 L | +46.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6373…a0b7backed Supernova | 47c | 259.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…70adbacked Supernova | 54c | 231.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Conviction | 54c | 219.57$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 401 | 45.4%182 W · 219 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Supernova | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 258 | 53.5%138 W · 120 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef2…4e03backed Conviction | 59c | 212.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Supernova | 47c | 210.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 600 | 53.2%319 W · 281 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Supernova | 43c | 203.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 478 | 38.7%185 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Supernova | 42c | 201.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Conviction | 58c | 187.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…cfabbacked Supernova | 49c | 173.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 237 | 40.5%96 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafa…02e0backed Conviction | 59c | 158.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 801 | 50.7%406 W · 395 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Conviction | 58c | 152.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 476 | 30.7%146 W · 330 L | -13.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Conviction | 56c | 150.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 690 | 41.3%285 W · 405 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc0…9d48backed Supernova | 45c | 144.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Conviction | 48c | 119.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Supernova | 45c | 97.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1,922 | 42.2%811 W · 1,111 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Conviction | 53c | 93.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 527 | 43.5%229 W · 298 L | +32.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Conviction | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Conviction | 56c | 87.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 798 | 64.3%513 W · 285 L | +32.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Conviction | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Conviction | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 392 | 66.6%261 W · 131 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Conviction | 64c | 67.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 507 | 45%228 W · 279 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…a3e1backed Supernova | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Conviction | 56c | 61.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Conviction | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 621 | 50.6%314 W · 307 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Supernova | 41c | 49.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,899 | 37.1%705 W · 1,194 L | -113.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bf1ebacked Supernova | 45c | 44.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 692 | 47%325 W · 367 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Conviction | 56c | 35.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Conviction | 58c | 33.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 331 | 25.7%85 W · 246 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…0e38backed Supernova | 39c | 32.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Conviction | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 334 | 53.9%180 W · 154 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Conviction | 56c | 26.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 465 | 52.7%245 W · 220 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Supernova | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Conviction | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Conviction | 64c | 22.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Conviction | 59c | 21.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 322 | 53.1%171 W · 151 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Conviction | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 364 | 65.1%237 W · 127 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Supernova vs Conviction - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)Supernova won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League PlayoffsConviction won
- LoL: Supernova vs Conviction - Game 2 WinnerSupernova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.