Lol · resolved market
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x271b9c7a2295b227a55ce0456e1e81ff42be5b4fb855bcd55c1699acd8f2ed5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Supernovaof Supernova, Conviction
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Conviction | 56c | 20,500$11,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,433.05 | 918 | 54%496 W · 422 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Supernova | 44c | 4,173$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,316.34 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Conviction | 11c | 3,564$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.23 | 1,259 | 37.6%473 W · 786 L | +34.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Supernova | 42c | 2,861$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.64 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2974backed Conviction | 3c | 2,045$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…ab7bbacked Supernova | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 835 | 60.8%508 W · 327 L | +45.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Supernova | 42c | 1,661$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.28 | 869 | 43.2%375 W · 494 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Supernova | 45c | 1,221$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.61 | 462 | 58.4%270 W · 192 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…0e69backed Supernova | 53c | 1,115$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.91 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Supernova | 47c | 1,110$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.43 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Supernova | 41c | 1,009$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.31 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…54a4backed Supernova | 43c | 986.57$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.57 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Supernova | 43c | 915.76$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.88 | 690 | 41.3%285 W · 405 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Supernova | 46c | 899.6$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.66 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Supernova | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ca…f644backed Conviction | 59c | 679.78$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 246 | 58.5%144 W · 102 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Conviction | 54c | 630.35$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Supernova | 48c | 607.42$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.42 | 258 | 53.5%138 W · 120 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Conviction | 55c | 549.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…51f3backed Conviction | 43c | 539.64$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Conviction | 6c | 518.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Supernova | 53c | 498.68$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…a28dbacked Supernova | 65c | 459.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 180 | 65%117 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…930fbacked Supernova | 42c | 400$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.75 | 1,216 | 44.4%540 W · 676 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Supernova | 42c | 371.43$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 507 | 45%228 W · 279 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…cfabbacked Supernova | 50c | 361.37$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.37 | 237 | 40.5%96 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Conviction | 41c | 354.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 698 | 41.8%292 W · 406 L | +46.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Conviction | 47c | 321.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…137dbacked Conviction | 61c | 319.08$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.37 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…6c11backed Supernova | 55c | 310$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 367 | 49.9%183 W · 184 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Supernova | 74c | 286.48$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 261 | 64.4%168 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e8…3c36backed Supernova | 42c | 276.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 180 | 36.1%65 W · 115 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafa…02e0backed Supernova | 42c | 271.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 801 | 50.7%406 W · 395 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…da36backed Supernova | 51c | 252.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Conviction | 50c | 252.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.17 | 478 | 38.7%185 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6373…a0b7backed Conviction | 43c | 251.47$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Supernova | 54c | 220.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 600 | 53.2%319 W · 281 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Conviction | 45c | 201.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 1,922 | 42.2%811 W · 1,111 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Supernova | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 274 | 65.7%180 W · 94 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…8553backed Supernova | 42c | 193.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 700 | 57.3%401 W · 299 L | +36.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Conviction | 54c | 166.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Supernova | 42c | 153.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 476 | 30.7%146 W · 330 L | -13.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Supernova | 50c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 331 | 25.7%85 W · 246 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Supernova | 41c | 147.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Conviction | 50c | 136.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 1,630 | 40.1%654 W · 976 L | +48.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Supernova | 57c | 130.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 321 | 60.7%195 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f15…f950backed Conviction | 57c | 130.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Supernova | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 321 | 42.1%135 W · 186 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Conviction | 25c | 109.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Supernova | 49c | 109.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Supernova | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 419 | 45.1%189 W · 230 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Conviction | 27c | 88.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 286 | 38.1%109 W · 177 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Conviction | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 527 | 43.5%229 W · 298 L | +32.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Supernova | 50c | 73.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…a3e1backed Supernova | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…0e38backed Supernova | 43c | 69.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…ec5bbacked Supernova | 79c | 63.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 414 | 53.4%221 W · 193 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…af5bbacked Conviction | 35c | 57.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2051…f9f1backed Conviction | 54c | 55.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bf1ebacked Supernova | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 692 | 47%325 W · 367 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Conviction | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 621 | 50.6%314 W · 307 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…ba12backed Supernova | 42c | 47.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Supernova | 65c | 46.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Supernova | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Conviction | 61c | 42.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 465 | 52.7%245 W · 220 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Conviction | 48c | 39.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,899 | 37.1%705 W · 1,194 L | -113.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…17aabacked Conviction | 48c | 36.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Conviction | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,643 | 44.4%730 W · 913 L | -42.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Conviction | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,247 | 52.8%659 W · 588 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…b5c4backed Conviction | 40c | 32.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…6321backed Conviction | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…deedbacked Conviction | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 402 | 45.8%184 W · 218 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Supernova | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…7c9abacked Supernova | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Supernova | 53c | 24.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 753 | 42.5%320 W · 433 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Supernova | 58c | 20.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 251 | 65.7%165 W · 86 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Supernova | 70c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 164 | 62.8%103 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…48cabacked Conviction | 57c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Supernova vs Conviction - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5)Supernova won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League PlayoffsConviction won
- LoL: Supernova vs Conviction - Game 1 WinnerConviction won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.