TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lazer Catsof Ursa, Lazer Cats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$173,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$195,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,064 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad72…4f5ebacked Lazer Cats46c9,240$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,980.1824538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e5…f069backed Ursa49c7,489$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,668.9814763.9%94 W · 53 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked Ursa54c6,383$3,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,432.765759.6%34 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa67c4,949$3,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.9984454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Lazer Cats37c3,743$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.6819540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Lazer Cats55c3,462$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.6243544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Ursa45c3,306$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.325,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Lazer Cats44c3,204$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,791.157247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Lazer Cats45c2,854$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.412,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Ursa58c2,840$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.391,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Ursa59c2,586$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lazer Cats43c2,448$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3987,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfe…8abfbacked Lazer Cats53c2,420$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Lazer Cats47c2,391$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.384940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Lazer Cats33c2,350$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.441,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Lazer Cats43c2,304$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.69540%38 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Ursa68c2,226$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.9360248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Ursa48c2,226$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.147454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Lazer Cats32c2,034$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.5322645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x824f…69bdbacked Ursa50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Ursa58c1,878$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.3864058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed Ursa69c1,871$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.181729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21de…506ebacked Lazer Cats29c1,821$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.593528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-39.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Ursa52c1,800$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94231345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked Ursa50c1,531$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.621833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Ursa13c1,505$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed Ursa67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00515264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Ursa61c1,500$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.4811758.1%68 W · 49 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd57b…c48fbacked Ursa73c1,499$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1007062.9%44 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Lazer Cats33c1,485$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.0832346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Lazer Cats28c1,461$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.5338739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5a…9ed6backed Ursa68c1,457$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.15362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Lazer Cats32c1,413$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.363357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ursa31c1,310$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.521,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Lazer Cats58c1,142$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.3562350.9%317 W · 306 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0561…51c7backed Ursa60c1,131$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.81942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked Lazer Cats33c1,112$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.278445.2%38 W · 46 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Lazer Cats53c1,067$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.694,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd8f…20abbacked Ursa69c1,037$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7163557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x050e…d92fbacked Ursa49c1,014$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.8122257.2%127 W · 95 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ec…fd3fbacked Lazer Cats33c999.99$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+207.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…5623backed Ursa40c999.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Ursa57c998.94$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.3924551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Lazer Cats52c970.7$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.4765546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Ursa68c944.33$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.1484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa62c916.54$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.84,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Lazer Cats47c911.99$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.0325944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Ursa57c896.22$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.4945465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe062…f949backed Lazer Cats22c884.98$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.534452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a47…3864backed Lazer Cats56c850$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3742100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3914…3db9backed Lazer Cats40c849.99$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.992334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Ursa67c835.95$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.052,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Ursa49c779.77$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.294957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Ursa66c759.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040148.4%194 W · 207 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Ursa49c750$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3705,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed Lazer Cats34c750$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49524942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca5e…4a1cbacked Ursa56c745.27$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4179443.6%41 W · 53 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Ursa67c735.03$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9463541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lazer Cats51c729.81$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.065,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Ursa49c728.18$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36031451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Ursa44c719.05$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.672,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b50…1db2backed Lazer Cats32c680.89$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.185950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Lazer Cats38c651$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.6935848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Lazer Cats32c627.85$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.9346243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Ursa62c598.75$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.1366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Lazer Cats42c588$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.0449850.2%250 W · 248 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed Ursa25c586.54$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.259736.1%35 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lazer Cats45c569.29$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.833,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Ursa58c555$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.92142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Lazer Cats48c540.7$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9216347.2%77 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0e…021ebacked Ursa40c538.59$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.822231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6910…8da8backed Ursa50c526.57$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Ursa49c520.32$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.7813646.3%63 W · 73 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd072…f2ccbacked Lazer Cats51c501.91$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a4…bf13backed Lazer Cats48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2603951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Lazer Cats32c500$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34028738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb600…4440backed Lazer Cats65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17516546.1%76 W · 89 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71a4…f92ebacked Lazer Cats34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3304334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2d5…53d0backed Lazer Cats43c499.99$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Ursa41c497.95$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.672,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe36c…a856backed Ursa45c494.52$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.298637.2%32 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f1…5ea0backed Lazer Cats49c493.67$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.679252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4038…35e4backed Lazer Cats49c477.2$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.6311352.2%59 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d4a…4256backed Lazer Cats31c471.56$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.141275%9 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Lazer Cats68c471.42$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.5839946.4%185 W · 214 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…36a8backed Lazer Cats33c459.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Lazer Cats32c456.38$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.3421545.6%98 W · 117 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2831…8fabbacked Ursa51c455.41$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.061361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa24a…8382backed Lazer Cats42c440$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.214248.6%69 W · 73 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Lazer Cats33c436.42$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.5448240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Lazer Cats52c415.79$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.761034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Lazer Cats50c397.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.55259.6%31 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Lazer Cats41c389.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0931845.3%144 W · 174 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Ursa52c385$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.25648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c5…db14backed Ursa41c380$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Ursa57c368.6$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2719851.5%102 W · 96 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x368c…73d0backed Lazer Cats57c354.17$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.173145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x565a…3207backed Ursa45c345.8$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.312347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ee…663bbacked Lazer Cats47c336$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9115044.7%67 W · 83 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Lazer Cats32c332.99$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+74.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.