CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x486b3ed3eb1f3123c522506078d34ac20c5d151aae99cd25f523ae8e6607d373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, Lazer Cats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98e5…f069backed Ursa | 58c | 3,530$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.57 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Lazer Cats | 45c | 3,395$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.51 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Ursa | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.99 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lazer Cats | 42c | 2,381$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.68 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Ursa | 55c | 1,083$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.51 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Lazer Cats | 45c | 631.39$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.05 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Lazer Cats | 38c | 551$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Lazer Cats | 27c | 522.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Lazer Cats | 26c | 351.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Lazer Cats | 45c | 306.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Lazer Cats | 45c | 220$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 73c | 174.31$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Ursa | 55c | 151.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…07bfbacked Lazer Cats | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Ursa | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Lazer Cats | 11c | 116.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Ursa | 76c | 112.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked Ursa | 56c | 106.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…f557backed Ursa | 55c | 92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Ursa | 61c | 82.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 184 | 32.6%60 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lazer Cats | 42c | 75.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…c59abacked Lazer Cats | 43c | 62.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Ursa | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…0539backed Lazer Cats | 45c | 48.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Ursa | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Ursa | 56c | 43.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 226 | 50%113 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…57a3backed Ursa | 56c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Ursa | 57c | 18.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group StageLazer Cats won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats - Map 1 WinnerLazer Cats won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Lazer Cats (+1.5)Lazer Cats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.