TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$171,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4739…138cbacked No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes67c4,545$3,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.9821035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes79c3,505$2,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.0527536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No13c3,274$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.7320418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b3b…0640backed Yes70c2,379$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+538.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked No12c2,052$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf62c…7681backed No23c1,871$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No11c1,571$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2360%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafa7…2ceebacked No10c1,479$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.872441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x63d8…0ad3backed Yes64c1,471$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c1,125$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7621713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…225fbacked No16c1,078$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa7…2cdfbacked No11c1,076$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No30c1,014$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.821723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No7c1,008$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5813654.4%74 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf3d…17a7backed No10c960.73$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f55…43adbacked No17c937.79$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa825…255ebacked No16c867.02$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9179…0a40backed No28c842.32$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No3c834$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0211720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2106…fa73backed No11c827.25$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6190%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4f…6407backed No23c806.98$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e45…1efbbacked No17c780$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0a…a5b1backed No12c745.04$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c2f…986fbacked No13c692.17$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed No19c682.02$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.494242.9%18 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…9edfbacked No15c672.98$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4901…cc02backed No65c669.54$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.4620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed No10c660.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45f0…5e0dbacked No6c650$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc2…aa59backed No31c615.31$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f80…2a00backed No36c603.95$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe84…e34ebacked No17c555.8$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-66.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes34c549.86$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.4325122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6737…ffe2backed No11c549.8$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d5…7b83backed No10c541.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470c…2af9backed No14c531.87$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.52156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c531.43$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.645738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd20b…53a4backed No10c525.59$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53fc…bce0backed No30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No24c499.85$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2512050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…0acfbacked No10c499.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.24742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No57c420$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.62240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c97…fd4dbacked No12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x964a…5836backed No14c398.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No10c380.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.09590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abd…0130backed No17c372.64$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb750…2b6cbacked No19c359.56$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1c…73f1backed No5c354.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No12c334.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5622019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29be…46afbacked No14c331.48$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf567…690abacked No30c321.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4907…5a92backed No13c305.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No7c304.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.78119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No25c304$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.294157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Yes78c299.97$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.141838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x749f…9501backed Yes41c299.72$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.116232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…cb2bbacked No9c290.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed No37c289.55$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.53425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb3…4091backed No17c276.59$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No17c272.86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.394551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No11c256.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.42850%4 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+224.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6aeb…2a27backed No11c253.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked No10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+42.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes76c250$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.51376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes41c240.72$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.0314337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef19…fcc8backed No15c233.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3744…ecd7backed No22c233.15$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5f…09f8backed No22c226.22$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0e…3700backed No11c219.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a0…5a8fbacked Yes71c213.84$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab5…4859backed No11c212.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+202.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No38c210.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0310338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No17c210.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.85382.6%1 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-94.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9c3…e510backed No23c205.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No51c200.25$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.932035%7 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3594…47e8backed No10c185.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.561225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes58c184.88$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.151010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-82.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40e0…69e3backed No61c170$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.41855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6f…1e55backed No10c162.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…1852backed Yes77c159.73$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.831968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64cc…309bbacked No18c157.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc7…135fbacked No24c151.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a4…4a39backed Yes59c147.63$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9a…24a9backed No24c146.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ad…9355backed No22c143.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc995…5e2ebacked No14c141.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864e…b8c6backed No11c139.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x504a…87f3backed No14c136.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea0…303cbacked No14c136.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-47.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No24c134.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.381421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No15c129.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9913738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes77c127.61$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.688442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc538…c555backed No13c126.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.76425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31b…11e8backed No16c125.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4bb…0f25backed No12c116.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6f5…c80abacked No10c115.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No42c113.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1415452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.