AI · resolved market
Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21aee1477b0baa63f7e3a6769b885392280be5ca853016fe89ad5a7316576fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,536$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,172$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 764$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 752.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 4c | 679.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…1841backed Yes | 2c | 600.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 8c | 583.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 576.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…7681backed Yes | 7c | 495.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 398.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 347.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…09afbacked Yes | 8c | 296.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…ff9cbacked Yes | 8c | 246.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3519…120cbacked Yes | 7c | 239.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 212.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 7c | 198.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes | 20c | 134.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 33c | 48.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 20, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 27, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.