TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof FURIA, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$759,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$824,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $759,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 471 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fd7…d5a3backed FURIA0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Team Falcons48c25,833$12,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,477.8333452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Falcons42c24,133$10,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,922.982,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons40c23,243$9,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,832.081,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Falcons46c18,515$8,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,985.44,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Team Falcons43c15,447$6,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,807.133,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FURIA60c14,426$8,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,635.2376058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FURIA54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.9850054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked FURIA50c9,920$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00019757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f44…b8c8backed Team Falcons30c6,602$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,651.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+85.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons44c6,504$2,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.286,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Team Falcons49c6,081$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,130.971,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf6a…925fbacked Team Falcons53c5,673$3,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.185742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FURIA37c5,486$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0311,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Team Falcons44c5,479$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.810044%44 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed FURIA65c5,023$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.6438868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Team Falcons31c4,487$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,097.72944.8%13 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Falcons46c4,453$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.6146149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed FURIA57c4,379$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.389250%46 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons42c3,944$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.555,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FURIA45c3,730$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.741,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked FURIA62c3,449$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.5819047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed Team Falcons20c3,330$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,648.7610560%63 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Team Falcons48c2,998$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.198670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3329…6c52backed FURIA59c2,763$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.042157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed FURIA79c2,688$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.0255043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FURIA57c2,653$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.8287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed FURIA45c2,556$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.2823243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Team Falcons37c2,417$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.6610442.3%44 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FURIA52c2,350$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.9275450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c66…c204backed FURIA52c2,346$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed FURIA52c2,346$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.5960848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FURIA67c2,309$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.4583652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bfe…1220backed Team Falcons48c2,223$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.129266.3%61 W · 31 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed FURIA51c2,183$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.238938.2%34 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FURIA71c2,020$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.931,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Falcons47c2,018$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.3264852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Team Falcons47c2,001$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.725248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed FURIA52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0407450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed Team Falcons43c2,000$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.891770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Team Falcons22c1,913$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.749542.1%40 W · 55 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed FURIA65c1,848$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20011061.8%68 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked FURIA51c1,788$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.288138.3%31 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eaf…1a93backed FURIA53c1,712$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.612850%14 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Falcons41c1,625$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.692,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb416…4588backed Team Falcons19c1,617$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+290.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed Team Falcons65c1,617$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.323966.7%26 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked FURIA54c1,600$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86428657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x932c…8658backed Team Falcons25c1,597$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.467243.1%31 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed FURIA46c1,539$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.8140558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Team Falcons68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48010250%51 W · 51 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FURIA54c1,500$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.3175245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA33c1,451$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.452,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa49…0721backed Team Falcons35c1,449$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a9…3bb6backed FURIA70c1,427$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3936…366dbacked Team Falcons36c1,406$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.632944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed FURIA61c1,399$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.7221135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons45c1,371$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.692,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe275…2450backed Team Falcons34c1,365$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.448235.4%29 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked FURIA77c1,333$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.658758.6%51 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed FURIA58c1,296$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75040048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Team Falcons62c1,250$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47512571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons50c1,217$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.3781843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed FURIA51c1,200$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61232346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Falcons26c1,176$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.481,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Falcons36c1,093$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.1743544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Falcons40c1,088$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.4420041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed FURIA52c1,086$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.7213357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons60c1,074$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.644,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed FURIA53c1,047$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55914839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed FURIA54c1,042$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.930153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed FURIA47c1,003$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.8612433.9%42 W · 82 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Team Falcons30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70041716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b9…bdf4backed Team Falcons33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6706036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked FURIA54c984.42$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.6540148.4%194 W · 207 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Team Falcons46c960$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.414151.8%73 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons48c918.17$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.653,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Team Falcons45c910.09$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.5518049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed FURIA61c908.24$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6417345.7%79 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d9…9e0ebacked FURIA59c863.81$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.337247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked FURIA61c860.97$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.4319741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Team Falcons43c856.67$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.8310635.8%38 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed FURIA40c854.49$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.978226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Team Falcons37c810.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.8129934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Falcons38c799.88$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.252,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9976…59acbacked Team Falcons39c789$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.24148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1da…dffbbacked FURIA54c779.99$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.64040%16 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Falcons39c774.72$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.7211740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…dc15backed Team Falcons46c769.98$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.795328.3%15 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Team Falcons31c750$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.271,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Team Falcons33c749.99$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.554732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3bc…2f60backed FURIA55c749.99$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.55543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed FURIA48c744.75$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.0462350.9%317 W · 306 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked FURIA72c712.18$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.1450358.6%295 W · 208 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Falcons47c710.54$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.262,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Team Falcons25c710$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.714037.1%52 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Team Falcons37c707.89$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.331,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked FURIA56c700$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39032832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked FURIA56c699.95$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.4731253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Team Falcons26c692.31$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.3112642.9%54 W · 72 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.