TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TYLOOof MOUZ, TYLOO
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$449,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$488,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $449,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 598 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e6e…be00backed TYLOO28c21,044$5,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,159.3641649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked TYLOO28c17,703$5,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,687.158258.5%48 W · 34 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed TYLOO32c15,959$5,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,899.9281843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ72c14,830$10,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,631.585,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked MOUZ74c12,742$9,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,391.1964852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked TYLOO27c12,152$3,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,871.275652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed MOUZ72c11,111$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00023839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked TYLOO28c10,714$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,714.2925751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8e…34cebacked MOUZ72c10,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed TYLOO29c10,000$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,112.650054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed TYLOO28c10,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed MOUZ71c10,000$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,099.9537157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed TYLOO25c8,306$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,21833043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ25c8,048$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.3987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed MOUZ42c8,004$3,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,359.486030%18 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ27c7,770$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.551,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2744…7e85backed MOUZ71c7,616$5,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,369.951752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked TYLOO29c7,126$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,059.4959839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed MOUZ72c6,758$4,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,881.1515947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed MOUZ79c5,839$4,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,613.0719949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked MOUZ30c5,566$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.712,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked MOUZ68c4,750$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,214.8832548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed MOUZ57c4,500$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,574.5916155.9%90 W · 71 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TYLOO29c4,372$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,083.185,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed TYLOO27c4,367$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,188.1571645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked TYLOO38c4,128$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.3812956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked TYLOO29c4,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,84017540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked MOUZ72c3,600$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.9538358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked MOUZ29c3,231$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.0366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed TYLOO79c3,206$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.4514950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed MOUZ71c3,020$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14445455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked MOUZ51c3,000$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.19248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9535…ccdcbacked MOUZ53c2,808$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.641717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed MOUZ72c2,775$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked MOUZ73c2,723$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.840140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked TYLOO42c2,700$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.983759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked MOUZ43c2,683$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.6446165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed MOUZ65c2,662$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ18c2,635$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.9588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked MOUZ71c2,500$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77517853.9%96 W · 82 L+0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TYLOO28c2,500$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.951,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed TYLOO28c2,481$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.9717045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed MOUZ58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked MOUZ56c1,971$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10027751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ72c1,956$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.8585446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ71c1,870$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.751252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed MOUZ75c1,856$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.624346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed TYLOO35c1,833$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.514427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5020…36fcbacked MOUZ73c1,823$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.044961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed MOUZ69c1,800$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.1318056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed MOUZ71c1,754$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.5120743%89 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed MOUZ71c1,700$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21460848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked MOUZ74c1,690$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25016344.8%73 W · 90 L-32.6wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-34.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ72c1,657$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.322,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked MOUZ62c1,589$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.110454.8%57 W · 47 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed MOUZ47c1,503$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70040048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed TYLOO29c1,500$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.9918846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed TYLOO27c1,500$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.9924935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ35c1,473$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.025,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed MOUZ40c1,450$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.0322444.2%99 W · 125 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed TYLOO28c1,429$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.5712449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked MOUZ7c1,385$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.362,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed TYLOO51c1,347$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.7545646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked MOUZ50c1,338$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67225261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ41c1,333$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.831,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked MOUZ65c1,316$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.153748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed MOUZ72c1,312$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.2315740.8%64 W · 93 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed TYLOO39c1,294$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.2638835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc68…f899backed TYLOO41c1,207$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.84047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ31c1,200$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.242,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed MOUZ53c1,150$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60831345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed TYLOO29c1,130$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.414955%82 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf48a…3594backed TYLOO44c1,119$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.234740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked TYLOO49c1,077$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.033,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3f3…9e5bbacked TYLOO51c1,073$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.141533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked TYLOO62c1,071$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.241,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed TYLOO29c1,057$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.1260248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked MOUZ71c1,055$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.463541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed MOUZ72c1,050$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75612253.3%65 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed MOUZ57c1,026$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.3429851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed TYLOO29c1,022$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.4578639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked MOUZ24c1,001$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.754946.9%23 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed TYLOO29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed TYLOO29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71033452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked MOUZ10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed TYLOO27c999.98$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.981,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed TYLOO48c999.97$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.982360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked TYLOO29c999$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.2910138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ22c998.08$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.484,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca82…fcfebacked MOUZ73c981.11$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.2114971.8%107 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked MOUZ4c974.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.861102.7%3 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed MOUZ72c972.22$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked TYLOO47c971.71$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.818933.9%64 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked TYLOO40c971.3$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.966339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0d…5a51backed MOUZ48c925.62$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.312055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked MOUZ67c900$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6078664%55 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked TYLOO28c887.95$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.331,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked TYLOO29c862.07$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.0752636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked MOUZ61c854.03$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52553545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb9…2a2ebacked MOUZ11c775.97$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.09540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+83.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.