TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere73c18,678$13,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,994.022,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Legacy35c15,349$5,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,372.1242440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere71c12,756$9,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,684.343,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Natus Vincere69c10,967$7,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,416.8250054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Legacy35c8,902$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,072.085,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Natus Vincere64c8,546$5,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,076.5642651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f90…8ed1backed Legacy36c8,232$2,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,963.422955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Legacy38c7,587$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.9441040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Legacy20c6,921$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3901,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed Legacy36c3,700$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.9810560%63 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Natus Vincere69c3,557$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.9220041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Legacy19c3,345$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.7188746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Legacy35c3,200$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.5428657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Legacy21c2,574$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.031,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Legacy30c2,405$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.416030%18 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…284ebacked Legacy37c2,141$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.2720935.4%74 W · 135 L-21.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Legacy25c2,124$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.422,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Legacy30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.997454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Natus Vincere67c1,938$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.6164852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb845…ca23backed Legacy18c1,868$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.22920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-40.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Natus Vincere74c1,670$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.652750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b9…bdf4backed Legacy18c1,668$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Legacy31c1,581$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.692,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere70c1,569$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.685,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Natus Vincere67c1,564$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.7117162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Legacy34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51024935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Legacy38c1,473$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.7561034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Natus Vincere65c1,310$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.6540558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Natus Vincere73c1,296$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.7825142.6%107 W · 144 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere73c1,200$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3241,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Legacy28c1,184$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.441,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Legacy36c1,133$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40834146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa503…c5b9backed Natus Vincere64c995.95$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.542240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed Legacy25c982.78$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509250%46 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Legacy30c877.23$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8746345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Legacy21c845.32$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0540140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Legacy36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30023354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Natus Vincere64c799.98$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.994374.4%32 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Natus Vincere65c767.95$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.235,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Natus Vincere71c766.92$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.812,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Natus Vincere64c740.13$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.451,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Legacy28c700$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.52,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4c2…1e3abacked Natus Vincere74c666.41$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.274575.6%34 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1866…1325backed Natus Vincere64c654.2$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.518648.8%42 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Natus Vincere71c631.07$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.326075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Legacy30c623.97$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.871,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Legacy25c602.59$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5487047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Legacy28c596.58$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.372,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere70c584.56$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.692,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Legacy22c577.12$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.751,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Legacy34c571.56$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3315052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Legacy8c570.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6252834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0900…6258backed Natus Vincere66c549.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.54148.8%20 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere71c543.83$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.416,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e35…2614backed Legacy37c511.27$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.175735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Natus Vincere63c505.86$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1717737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Legacy28c504$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.83,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86df…7d27backed Natus Vincere65c500$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17419947.2%94 W · 105 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed Legacy4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014929.5%44 W · 105 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Natus Vincere64c499.98$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9981244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere73c490.83$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.337,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Legacy36c474.9$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17037232.5%121 W · 251 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Natus Vincere63c434.7$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8423653.8%127 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed Natus Vincere69c405$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5517759.9%106 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere75c404.12$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.971,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90a…f6b5backed Natus Vincere73c378.36$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9212165.3%79 W · 42 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20b3…93cbbacked Natus Vincere65c356.75$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d9…359cbacked Legacy15c335.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Legacy35c332.8$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4885446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Legacy35c330.71$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11763541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Natus Vincere64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.57448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Legacy31c312.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.481,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Legacy23c310$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.814037.1%52 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05e…04cebacked Natus Vincere65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6919259.4%114 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Legacy23c304.37$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.241,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Legacy37c303$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1150043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e46…42dfbacked Legacy36c300.39$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.745042%21 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked Legacy6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821519.1%41 W · 174 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Natus Vincere64c296.88$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8821263.7%135 W · 77 L-0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Legacy35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10059839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Legacy37c281.08$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10419747.2%93 W · 104 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed Natus Vincere72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7835953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Legacy27c263.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.164,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Natus Vincere69c260.25$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.862,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3621…2d2dbacked Natus Vincere72c249.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709040%36 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0241…fd36backed Natus Vincere64c249.98$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9940155.1%221 W · 180 L+1.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed Natus Vincere65c248.38$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9317761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x210a…1080backed Legacy26c235.76$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.132828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Legacy30c215.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5148319%92 W · 391 L-65.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7205…8e0abacked Natus Vincere64c206.91$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4911953.8%64 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Natus Vincere74c201.38$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.871,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Natus Vincere70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6014042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Natus Vincere64c200$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7335861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5e1…e05cbacked Legacy20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Natus Vincere67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6658755.9%328 W · 259 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6f0…7b5bbacked Natus Vincere64c199.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722650%13 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked Legacy36c198.65$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Natus Vincere64c188.46$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.312,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere68c175$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.54,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.