TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof Natus Vincere, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$273,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4713…4d21backed Legacy44c15,762$6,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,767.65,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x823d…189dbacked Natus Vincere62c11,831$7,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,369.761631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Legacy45c11,170$4,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,175.941040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Legacy47c8,048$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,275.3710044%44 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f90…8ed1backed Natus Vincere59c7,180$4,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2012955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere62c5,229$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,235.361,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Legacy40c5,041$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,040.7950054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere57c4,892$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.022,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere58c4,355$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.2388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere54c4,330$2,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,341.322,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere63c3,530$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.6887047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Legacy37c3,466$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.810550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked Legacy60c3,213$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.0611443%49 W · 65 L-12.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf989…47ccbacked Legacy16c3,070$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.883020%6 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere58c2,945$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.481,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Natus Vincere38c2,905$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.4525655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Legacy36c2,672$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.5628657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Legacy40c2,488$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.743,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Legacy50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.357454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere55c2,024$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.362,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere64c2,001$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.631,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed Natus Vincere79c1,886$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.285955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Legacy50c1,651$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.811,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Legacy46c1,458$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.383,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere49c1,400$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.12,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Legacy40c1,400$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Natus Vincere61c1,342$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.215,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere54c1,312$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.064,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Legacy35c1,250$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.538868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Legacy48c1,217$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.281,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Natus Vincere59c1,096$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.921,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Natus Vincere1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101973.6%7 W · 190 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-91.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Legacy41c981.8$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.262,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Natus Vincere58c971.75$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.222,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Natus Vincere61c949.8$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.3845455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Natus Vincere50c893.98$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.9952951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere38c853.59$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.857,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Legacy44c775.35$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.282,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Legacy40c766.3$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.7875245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Legacy51c758.96$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.732,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Legacy41c742.9$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.866,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Legacy43c703.79$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.1649941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed Legacy24c694.48$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.835953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere61c690.49$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.384,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Legacy40c685.75$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.7148240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Legacy40c619.01$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.932,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Natus Vincere61c600.88$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.5319747.2%93 W · 104 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3181,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Natus Vincere74c578.26$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.9118442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Legacy43c576.94$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.954,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Legacy42c559$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.8945646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Natus Vincere54c535.88$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28935341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe90a…f6b5backed Natus Vincere60c520.06$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.8512165.3%79 W · 42 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Natus Vincere61c517.35$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1721460.3%129 W · 85 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3621…2d2dbacked Natus Vincere52c502$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.49040%36 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Natus Vincere33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16532136.8%118 W · 203 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1866…1325backed Natus Vincere61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.58648.8%42 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x254b…e8abbacked Legacy38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3103043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Legacy32c499.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9950043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Legacy41c487.12$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.1223354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Legacy42c411.9$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.934146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Legacy20c407.4$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9211740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Legacy44c396.28$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.215,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed Natus Vincere60c380.92$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22817761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed Legacy22c379.09$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.6914929.5%44 W · 105 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Natus Vincere54c371.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022761.7%140 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Legacy45c363.34$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.4658745%264 W · 323 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Natus Vincere59c362.12$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1523940.2%96 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Legacy42c357.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.1450050.6%253 W · 247 L+2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb845…ca23backed Legacy38c355.26$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.262920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-40.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere60c349.7$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8260953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Legacy38c341.03$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.441,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Legacy52c340$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.219342.5%82 W · 111 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Legacy39c320.51$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5146345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Natus Vincere60c304.53$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9516347.2%77 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Legacy40c260$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15621655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Legacy49c250$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.558343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed Natus Vincere66c227.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014048.6%68 W · 72 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Legacy76c218.25$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3832832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Legacy51c217.12$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.912,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2f1ebacked Legacy30c216.65$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4529156.7%165 W · 126 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc086…8128backed Natus Vincere74c216.62$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6714748.3%71 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…47fabacked Natus Vincere68c201.21$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.063070%21 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0900…6258backed Natus Vincere51c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014148.8%20 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf82f…59bfbacked Legacy25c200$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.998842%37 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Natus Vincere61c196.79$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.592,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked Natus Vincere45c196.03$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.559061.1%55 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Legacy42c183.33$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.339248.9%45 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7055…49bbbacked Natus Vincere50c179.66$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8314549.7%72 W · 73 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd59c…9cfcbacked Natus Vincere62c175.62$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f68…e91abacked Legacy56c175.51$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.032161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da2…22b6backed Legacy32c175$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11938945.8%178 W · 211 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e57…831dbacked Natus Vincere51c169.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.47943%34 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Legacy31c167.62$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6231647.5%150 W · 166 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee3…9d1ebacked Legacy61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.933033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Legacy26c159.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4637441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked Legacy45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8226341.1%108 W · 155 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f11…15b5backed Natus Vincere67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004143.9%18 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Natus Vincere61c148.24$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.938951.7%46 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.