NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x115d8f896bcd0c48d3281b534b3480ebfa4c033064ef3d75d17859d451893841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Rockets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,224 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 61c | 1,840$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.44 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Rockets | 45c | 892.8$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rockets | 39c | 863.57$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.54 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Rockets | 32c | 388.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98b2…6042backed Rockets | 44c | 224.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Timberwolves | 62c | 221.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…57febacked Timberwolves | 50c | 198.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Rockets | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rockets | 50c | 85.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…5e2ebacked Timberwolves | 74c | 75.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed Timberwolves | 60c | 72.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Rockets | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rockets | 38c | 60.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Timberwolves | 45c | 57.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60c…8e81backed Rockets | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed Rockets | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 35.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Timberwolves | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Timberwolves | 73c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…95e9backed Rockets | 49c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Timberwolves | 64c | 24.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Timberwolves | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Timberwolves | 80c | 19.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Timberwolves | 57c | 19.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Timberwolves | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed Timberwolves | 72c | 18.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.