NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a936627cac7fb6752109276e7d45d842ccc840967a23d66794f4ea6b142c451
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Rockets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,687 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Timberwolves | 52c | 17,429$9,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,365.91 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…8d26backed Rockets | 48c | 13,064$6,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,270.87 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 12,991$6,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,109.56 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Rockets | 48c | 5,447$2,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,614.52 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Rockets | 43c | 4,875$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.42 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets | 47c | 4,813$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.26 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc2…9c0dbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.87 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves | 63c | 2,311$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.79 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets | 47c | 2,209$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.2 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Rockets | 48c | 1,550$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.99 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Rockets | 52c | 1,535$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 47c | 1,052$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Rockets | 48c | 934.29$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.46 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Rockets | 30c | 659.13$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Rockets | 47c | 597.09$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 185 | 34.1%63 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 41c | 517.92$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Rockets | 50c | 300.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Timberwolves | 54c | 224.07$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rockets | 39c | 209.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Rockets | 50c | 198.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Timberwolves | 55c | 198.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Rockets | 38c | 167$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Timberwolves | 58c | 160.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…8510backed Timberwolves | 55c | 146.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Timberwolves | 69c | 144.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Rockets | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Timberwolves | 54c | 125.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 114.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Rockets | 36c | 111.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Rockets | 41c | 101.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Timberwolves | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…9429backed Timberwolves | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Rockets | 48c | 92.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Rockets | 41c | 73.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rockets | 42c | 65.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Rockets | 45c | 65.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed Rockets | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Rockets | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 49.5%110 W · 112 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 44c | 60.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…4b11backed Timberwolves | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Rockets | 47c | 57.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Timberwolves | 53c | 57.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d1…28adbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 56.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Timberwolves | 41c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Timberwolves | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…eef1backed Rockets | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Timberwolves | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Timberwolves | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Rockets | 45c | 47.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Timberwolves | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 44.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Rockets | 47c | 41.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Timberwolves | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Timberwolves | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Timberwolves | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Timberwolves | 60c | 33.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Rockets | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Timberwolves | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Timberwolves | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Timberwolves | 57c | 22.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Timberwolves | 52c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Timberwolves | 80c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.