World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Tory" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29954664daeb8cd28b232fd6942a7003e7b13c7beddcdd247c49b33adabd0c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,950 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3895…ea89backed No | 46c | 1,306$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…f6d6backed No | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34f…d673backed No | 46c | 1,289$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…13f1backed No | 46c | 1,288$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…827ebacked No | 46c | 1,278$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…481bbacked No | 47c | 1,269$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…db47backed No | 47c | 1,166$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…4047backed Yes | 54c | 1,116$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdab…1606backed Yes | 54c | 1,115$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c9…b9b6backed Yes | 54c | 1,104$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ff…316abacked Yes | 54c | 1,103$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…41bbbacked No | 47c | 1,101$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f3…7026backed Yes | 54c | 1,097$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…d755backed No | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528d…dddfbacked No | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…9588backed Yes | 53c | 944$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7b6abacked Yes | 53c | 944$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5c…05debacked Yes | 53c | 944$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…fd36backed Yes | 53c | 944$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…1ec7backed Yes | 53c | 944$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5f07backed Yes | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…1a35backed Yes | 54c | 926$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…4f34backed Yes | 77c | 130.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 67c | 79.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 69.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 47c | 63.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 44c | 51.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…5e2ebacked Yes | 77c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…83a4backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 80c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Tory" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "Abuse" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Iran" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.