World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360c83b76f4996a464aeb036e537b14eb2e66717e8bb44de0cfe034abad794b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,341 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880a…79f2backed Yes | 46c | 1,285$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ef…3ce3backed No | 54c | 1,115$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…4970backed No | 54c | 1,107$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…446bbacked No | 54c | 1,107$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…2fa7backed No | 54c | 1,104$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…9846backed No | 54c | 1,094$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…fe60backed Yes | 47c | 1,093$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…01e2backed No | 54c | 1,092$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bd…bd2cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…ec47backed Yes | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…6446backed Yes | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…69c9backed Yes | 46c | 1,086$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…33f3backed Yes | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dcc2backed Yes | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…716abacked Yes | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…635fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c0…556bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…3581backed Yes | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe82…c517backed Yes | 46c | 1,027$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes | 50c | 993.41$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfb…e474backed No | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d4…c7e9backed No | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…abefbacked No | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…cdbbbacked No | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…31cabacked No | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…51f6backed No | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…738cbacked No | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…65a8backed No | 56c | 872.87$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 54c | 853.64$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 54c | 305$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.95 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 49c | 242.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…0041backed Yes | 43c | 232.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 51c | 222.95$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 33c | 159.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 73c | 125.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 64c | 107.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…2d9dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Yes | 54c | 93.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…86eebacked Yes | 42c | 90.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c69…52fdbacked No | 50c | 64.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 62.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 36c | 61.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 58.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…7cf7backed Yes | 44c | 54.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 30c | 54.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 58c | 50.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…269abacked Yes | 73c | 50.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…734bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 35c | 42.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…bdd4backed Yes | 43c | 42.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 44c | 41.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 59c | 32.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 76c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 54c | 27.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…3577backed No | 62c | 26.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 61c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2580…8c75backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b6…10ccbacked Yes | 54c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfa…c9e7backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…379dbacked No | 73c | 16.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?this page
- Will Starmer say "Abuse" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Iran" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?No won
- Will Starmer say "Tory" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.