NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dd5e8fe7b0dc9b1fd75fe42d0aad4a9507b74c58c27747a61de5e22d32c2fd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Timberwolves, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Lakers | 53c | 17,140$9,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,055.84 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Timberwolves | 49c | 17,077$8,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,290.5 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Timberwolves | 47c | 7,444$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.77 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 52c | 5,323$2,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.14 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…cdc7backed Lakers | 55c | 4,815$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…7b2dbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 4,654$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Lakers | 45c | 2,758$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.48 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 47c | 2,620$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.62 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Timberwolves | 46c | 2,045$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.09 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Lakers | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Lakers | 44c | 746.72$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.2 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 53c | 652.46$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Lakers | 54c | 560$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…8f16backed Timberwolves | 47c | 187.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Timberwolves | 46c | 162.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Lakers | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Lakers | 54c | 54.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Timberwolves | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Lakers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Timberwolves | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…1c66backed Timberwolves | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Lakers won
- Timberwolves vs. LakersLakers won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.