Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefeccfd4c7d7aec05e3abe8dcdd95a6b394171cf877ca7457190d30bd970e505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 16c | 2,446$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.1 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 70c | 2,337$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.13 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 1,531$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.67 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked No | 79c | 1,145$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed Yes | 22c | 985$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82c…2fa1backed Yes | 21c | 981.48$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 846.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 35c | 800.62$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.64 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…35d7backed Yes | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed No | 57c | 731.66$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 4c | 701.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 79c | 619.91$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.14 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 465$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 10c | 418$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 372.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 78c | 339$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 80c | 278.99$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 46c | 256$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…8ae7backed No | 77c | 255$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 25c | 218.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…36afbacked Yes | 42c | 210.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…8c8dbacked Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 189.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 54c | 154$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 19c | 153.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 25c | 153$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…bca8backed No | 78c | 152.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 35c | 136.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 24c | 136.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 18c | 132.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed No | 76c | 128.49$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 44c | 128.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…35e8backed Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f3…ac83backed Yes | 55c | 113.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb99e…f5b4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 40c | 98.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 69.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…2b8cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…458ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…8f5fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ef…fe3abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 43cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x185a…3137backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cad…d424backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb965…01d8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…9589backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…4bfabacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…aaefbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…f59abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6c…5c67backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60f…1ab0backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…1695backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…3966backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…61dcbacked No | 49c | 40.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 58c | 31.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…ba3fbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed No | 72c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…3f0cbacked No | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414f…fbecbacked No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.