Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcccb5a20664c7f4eb8ce4257eeea7fecf487a9b4710e38ecf63adb440a185491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 46c | 5,864$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.78 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 55c | 2,378$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.06 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 1,820$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.2 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 43c | 1,291$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.79 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 51c | 1,000$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.27 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 6c | 900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 3c | 847.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 51c | 826.49$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed No | 60c | 801.07$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.26 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 563.34$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.52 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 47c | 448.85$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f3…ac83backed Yes | 49c | 408$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 54c | 398.15$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 312.49$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.37 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…caa2backed Yes | 48c | 262.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 18c | 260.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 251.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…3e90backed Yes | 48c | 208.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 61c | 199.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 169.75$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 53c | 157.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed No | 51c | 139$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2251…25a0backed No | 61c | 137$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes | 51c | 136$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de3…8df2backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…8c8dbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 46c | 89.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…ea7abacked No | 25c | 88.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 47c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…0507backed Yes | 49c | 50.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…47e8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…2807backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…7825backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…44eebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…1fdbbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f8…a7d2backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…31f9backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…eccdbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…4005backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c890backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…e1e0backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…9b29backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…14dfbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…bfc6backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f99fbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…4193backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…b88fbacked No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…bc97backed No | 46c | 48.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…5e71backed No | 46c | 48.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 50c | 48.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3a…f5dbbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.