TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0899…0507

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+292.2%+$73.04
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.4
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.75
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$23.57
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.52
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$32.63
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+293.4%+$102.69
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$40.38
Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$64
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$30.65
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.93
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.2
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+864.9%+$164.33
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+193.3%+$147.81
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.6
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+70.4%+$204.05
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.95
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,930Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,929.99
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$51.65
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$864Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$336
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.4
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.94
All 12 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FOKUS (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.06
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stagebacked Lavked · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.08
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Abacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+150%+$130.51
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.53
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagebacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$388Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$122.45
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.68
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.51
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.19
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagebacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$130.81
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagebacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.3
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$185.75
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.54
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.05
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$23.95
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.51
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$35.52
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.24
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$25.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.65
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+91.8%+$39.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$15.83
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$21.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Denmark win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.