Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a0a25b8d835aa470b1f936be1a65b0c1f7ef4bec07071423b3f4f23993339c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x496d…301bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 8,173$3,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,547.9 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 50c | 3,762$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.77 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 48c | 3,514$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.21 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,211$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 1,960$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.1 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…f62ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,451$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 39c | 1,429$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.85 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed Yes | 22c | 1,336$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 7c | 1,299$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 35c | 1,127$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.93 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 34c | 1,085$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.13 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 66c | 964.87$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.06 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c90…8770backed Yes | 21c | 933.83$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…6863backed No | 40c | 863.09$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +71%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked No | 52c | 813.97$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.71 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed Yes | 57c | 731.97$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 687.34$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.31 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…5f59backed No | 25c | 599.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked Yes | 54c | 554.57$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.74 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 50c | 537$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 57c | 522.13$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…0ca7backed Yes | 9c | 499.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…e245backed No | 43c | 475.47$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked Yes | 57c | 444$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…1e46backed No | 76c | 438.78$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 9c | 430.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5928backed Yes | 35c | 400$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 398.95$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Yes | 66c | 371.92$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 10c | 370$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 363.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f2…b7cebacked Yes | 55c | 362.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c64…afe2backed Yes | 22c | 360$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 55c | 354$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 353.72$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…bda7backed No | 59c | 340.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 58c | 329.5$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 8c | 311.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4456…e35abacked Yes | 35c | 308.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 19c | 287$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…202fbacked No | 76c | 272$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Yes | 24c | 266.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…3e90backed No | 51c | 225$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 77c | 220$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98c6…e7a3backed Yes | 25c | 198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 10c | 190.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 41c | 184.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 25c | 178.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.85 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 47c | 176.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed No | 50c | 175.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 46c | 173.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90f3…ac83backed Yes | 57c | 173.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 29c | 172.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…00c8backed Yes | 60c | 172.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed No | 40c | 168.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…d048backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 48c | 162.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f76…fb8abacked Yes | 10c | 147.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5100…35dcbacked Yes | 16c | 137.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…ea7abacked No | 18c | 135.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…2bdabacked No | 23c | 132.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 75c | 127.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed Yes | 73c | 127.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…9b4fbacked Yes | 24c | 123.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…0507backed Yes | 57c | 122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 27c | 115.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 18c | 107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 36c | 101.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…0753backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…1cecbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…344dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +116%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…5465backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…c6b1backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…5cc8backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…bbfcbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…bdaebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…f8f7backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…ae31backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…8400backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…b776backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…854dbacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3858…a870backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…e1f9backed No | 29c | 93.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…c199backed Yes | 33c | 92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…33c5backed Yes | 32c | 91.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…a3f2backed Yes | 23c | 88.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.