TailMyPicks
Market

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes8c5,189$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7834534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes3c4,506$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c3,471$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.332934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7057…f998backed Yes16c2,654$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.231346.2%6 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick18cpaid+200.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes6c2,390$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.383857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes8c2,130$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.626848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes10c1,671$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.929747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,339$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.092221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes19c1,191$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2415446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes4c1,154$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.661246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Yes16c1,152$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.041241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e70…9220backed Yes19c1,051$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce0c…fa49backed Yes8c980.47$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+254.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes24c806.85$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.391,28624.2%311 W · 975 L-58.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes8c792.24$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6519923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes9c791.03$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.529741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c33…ab72backed Yes19c789.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502512%3 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf82…17febacked Yes5c760.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes6c623.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.319151.6%47 W · 44 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes21c598$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9214429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes17c566.34$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8335334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes5c557.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.327322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf11f…1158backed Yes14c527.77$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes17c490.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.54979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes25c481.44$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.078051.3%41 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes2c457.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.273517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes19c442.82$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.142825%7 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x974f…49a7backed Yes24c424.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes21c418.01$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1320624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a3…c11abacked Yes7c414.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.383531.4%11 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+152.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c401.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.451,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed No77c400.23$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4519855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No76c394.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.822378.3%18 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes17c349.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes14c325.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.546431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605662.5%35 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a99…c413backed Yes18c300$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6218…f344backed No77c275.71$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-63.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes10c269.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7123323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes23c263.54$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.611136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56d…12a9backed Yes15c244.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.751442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41c…5bd3backed Yes18c242.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.697356.2%41 W · 32 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes19c242.11$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4612126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4752…1817backed Yes19c235.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes10c227.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8530839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4076…e9fcbacked Yes17c220.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2ce…aec5backed Yes20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e68…6898backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.421030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd88…4037backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-42%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes14c196.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.946150.8%31 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96ff…ea2abacked Yes14c175.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No79c172.8$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.418650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes9c156.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2539034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e55…01bbbacked Yes15c151$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed Yes19c150$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd7…452cbacked Yes16c148.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes11c144.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.67532%24 W · 51 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c107.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2730718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6acd…dc61backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked No76c98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5210866.7%72 W · 36 L+15.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes18c94.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.12458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eaa…44eebacked No79c86$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.061250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2270…b8d2backed Yes15c82.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes14c77.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-84.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Yes23c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.251464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcda…c199backed Yes21c69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.161225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410967%73 W · 36 L+12.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb527…3b52backed Yes23c56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.776240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes24c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4456…e35abacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…ff77backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe31f…0d1dbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb9…badebacked No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61b…10d7backed No73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d75…4e46backed No77c31.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.17887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick74cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1773…8c09backed No72c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No76c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.736937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+289%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ed6…8782backed No80c22.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.57825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.