Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 12c | 6,104$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.29 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,678$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.62 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 2,649$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.22 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…3e8dbacked No | 58c | 1,820$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Yes | 42c | 1,552$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 69c | 1,519$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.39 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 56c | 1,327$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.21 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 20c | 1,271$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.86 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 48c | 814.14$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.75 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa898…71c1backed Yes | 6c | 642.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed No | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 41c | 482.05$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.12 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 464$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 4c | 429.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 420$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 63c | 407.95$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.17 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed Yes | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 335.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 43c | 330$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…1da5backed Yes | 51c | 310$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…50c2backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…04a4backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 67c | 299.36$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7f60backed Yes | 39c | 294.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 250.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 31c | 250$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…40acbacked Yes | 47c | 245.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…fde1backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed No | 49c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b1…9e65backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f3…0f89backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 57c | 194.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Yes | 43c | 192$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…0959backed Yes | 6c | 174.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…4680backed No | 65c | 174.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…1063backed No | 65c | 168.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…ed8dbacked No | 66c | 163.64$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…1e46backed No | 77c | 162.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…1a43backed No | 65c | 160.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 50c | 158$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…1338backed No | 68c | 157.54$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb32…62dcbacked No | 70c | 155.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 8c | 155.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…2d64backed No | 65c | 155.78$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…8f18backed No | 70c | 153.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…a3f2backed No | 69c | 145.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 43c | 136.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 46c | 129.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 117.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda69…507fbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…be4fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…aab4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…b333backed No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 54c | 98.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1d…0eacbacked Yes | 29c | 82.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…8782backed Yes | 18c | 72.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…bc8abacked Yes | 31c | 71.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 43c | 64.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 51c | 52.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…7695backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…37a1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…eb50backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…47e8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…44eebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…8c09backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af0…7aefbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…31f9backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c6…1f92backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…d42dbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b7…3e9dbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1788…6c66backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…aec5backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…e6f5backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…0037backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…9589backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…4bfabacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…7789backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…c6f5backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…e41dbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 62c | 48.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 42c | 47.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.