TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes12c6,104$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.291915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes5c3,678$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.623525.7%9 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c2,649$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.2293840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b87…3e8dbacked No58c1,820$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.161546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Yes42c1,552$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No69c1,519$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.396848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No56c1,327$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.218650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes20c1,271$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.8634534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked No48c814.14$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.7530738.8%119 W · 188 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa898…71c1backed Yes6c642.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.491816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7d…cb08backed No60c550$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2204355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes41c482.05$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1229747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c464$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.382221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes4c429.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes42c420$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.47532%24 W · 51 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed No63c407.95$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.174951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-62.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3e1…ac51backed Yes52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c335.84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.591,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes43c330$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.38339.8%33 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f57…1da5backed Yes51c310$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.61361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+62.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…50c2backed No44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca4…9ccbbacked Yes44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecab…04a4backed No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed No67c299.36$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.073857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…7f60backed Yes39c294.33$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No77c250.98$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.151,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes31c250$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.56150.8%31 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61c3…40acbacked Yes47c245.79$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca53…fde1backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2c…80e5backed No49c200$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b1…9e65backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f3…0f89backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed No57c194.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6725661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe105…185bbacked Yes43c192$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.562958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca00…0959backed Yes6c174.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77e1…4680backed No65c174.23$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4650…1063backed No65c168.89$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3e…ed8dbacked No66c163.64$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…1e46backed No77c162.34$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfef5…1a43backed No65c160.43$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed Yes50c158$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9519855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf986…1338backed No68c157.54$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb32…62dcbacked No70c155.92$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes8c155.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-82.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b2c…2d64backed No65c155.78$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb033…8f18backed No70c153.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8191…3868backed No57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.51850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes34c149.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b0…a3f2backed No69c145.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.651457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No43c136.77$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.962646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No46c129.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8915446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes13c117.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1118540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda69…507fbacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4227322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…be4fbacked No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccdd…aab4backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72cb…5962backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5410148.5%49 W · 52 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0e…b333backed No49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes54c98.14$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes41c97.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405343.4%23 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa1d…0eacbacked Yes29c82.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ed6…8782backed Yes18c72.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fd…bc8abacked Yes31c71.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc10b…96d5backed Yes43c64.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes51c52.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.644020%8 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5522…7695backed Yes38c51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2cd…37a1backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b5…0f43backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…eb50backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d3e…47e8backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eaa…44eebacked Yes54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.54938.8%19 W · 30 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1773…8c09backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0af0…7aefbacked Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9008…31f9backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c6…1f92backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-65.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae3d…d42dbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick43cpaid-65.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd0bf…b759backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78b7…3e9dbacked Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1788…6c66backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2ce…aec5backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a85…876cbacked Yes57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de6…e6f5backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+50.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e95…0037backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fee…9589backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-42.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3731…4bfabacked No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd862…f135backed No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51275%9 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+50.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4f…7789backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2df2…c6f5backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4892…e41dbacked Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.590%0 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed No62c48.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.381,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed No42c47.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.799151.6%47 W · 44 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes50c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.