Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3118c1b661f4b1694c0b75c1799d0ccf7d39d1c96e4df685abd725ede6b12a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,453$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.58 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 3,385$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.95 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 63c | 3,364$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.18 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 59c | 2,432$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.91 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 33c | 2,320$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.01 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,969$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,326$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked No | 41c | 1,297$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.32 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 9c | 1,056$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 42c | 1,003$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.53 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 6c | 989.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 986.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 70c | 862.02$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.04 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Yes | 66c | 735.38$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.31 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…c90bbacked Yes | 3c | 672.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…c3efbacked Yes | 5c | 672.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 645.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…3e8dbacked No | 41c | 599.98$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 77c | 549.99$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…55f1backed No | 38c | 520.72$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…80aebacked No | 23c | 509$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 24cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…1da5backed Yes | 80c | 499.16$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 77c | 472$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 446.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…2b99backed Yes | 9c | 420$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 24c | 313.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…7aa8backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…40acbacked No | 34c | 271.02$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 22c | 269.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.51 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 42c | 268.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.09 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…bfcfbacked Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe296…afebbacked Yes | 43c | 266.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked No | 19c | 250$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…3697backed Yes | 38c | 239.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…63d7backed Yes | 30c | 239.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 8c | 238.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 234.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…734dbacked Yes | 29c | 231$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 57c | 215.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164e…c4a6backed No | 71c | 202.69$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 50c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…fd4abacked Yes | 56c | 195.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23c…e07fbacked Yes | 13c | 192.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…6332backed Yes | 64c | 190.77$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572c…6fe5backed Yes | 61c | 189.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 188.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed No | 55c | 183$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…779abacked No | 39c | 178.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…fa49backed No | 14c | 175.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +254.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa898…71c1backed Yes | 15c | 165.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82db…2156backed Yes | 63c | 163.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…6b36backed Yes | 14c | 160.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 8c | 159.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…1505backed No | 42c | 155.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 47c | 140$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed Yes | 61c | 140$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked No | 20c | 136.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…7ddabacked Yes | 78c | 112.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 29c | 108.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…25e8backed No | 22c | 108$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +344.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed No | 32c | 106.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…2551backed No | 15c | 102.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 56c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…4149backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…d642backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…11debacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…0959backed Yes | 20c | 98.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 93.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 88.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…8782backed Yes | 42c | 86.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 35c | 86.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 63.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…a3f2backed No | 48c | 63.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae9…14febacked No | 19c | 61.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be7…cad9backed No | 19c | 59.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked No | 36c | 57.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…a4b4backed No | 42c | 51.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…a73fbacked No | 24c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…ccfabacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…8c09backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af0…7aefbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c6…1f92backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07f8…ccacbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cb3fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…1b9cbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.