Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1c713c406bfd6fe5181a2c353ab86f202690f396f3b09bb0902d339b470d222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x061d…e93cbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 60c | 9,387$5,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.26 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…740bbacked No | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 34c | 3,098$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 36c | 1,352$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.62 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 74c | 1,318$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.64 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 59c | 1,273$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.52 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 31c | 713.87$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.87 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…add8backed No | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 259.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 32c | 240.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 33c | 129$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 117.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…f9a5backed No | 40c | 99.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5c…fcb8backed No | 22c | 97.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…61dcbacked No | 39c | 89.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 54c | 77.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed Yes | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 32c | 67.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 44c | 58.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 50.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…3b78backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…65f7backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 32c | 46.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…9b4fbacked Yes | 56c | 45.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 26c | 40.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1929…346bbacked No | 32c | 36.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 34c | 30.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…1c17backed No | 36c | 30.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 55c | 21.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.