Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5f8d32ee9a703b79f46dcc5eba73685d6a327f64c16e4a303a0054bd3ace300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b06…6c73backed No | 0c | 81,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 9,892$4,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,666.7 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 57c | 5,222$2,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976.54 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 31c | 4,017$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.48 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 45c | 3,790$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.05 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 49c | 3,512$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.2 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 57c | 2,791$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.28 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 38c | 1,727$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.48 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc9…f150backed No | 30c | 1,207$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…c229backed No | 3c | 1,100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 56c | 1,034$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.81 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 51c | 926.25$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.93 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 43c | 907.57$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 44c | 902.08$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…f998backed Yes | 46c | 800$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…5593backed Yes | 74c | 746.4$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 73c | 717.98$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 59c | 700$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 586.91$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.51 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 40c | 529.76$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.16 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…3e6ebacked Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked Yes | 62c | 379.57$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 364.45$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.14 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…4c39backed Yes | 38c | 362.9$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…136fbacked Yes | 40c | 362.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ef…2b4dbacked Yes | 40c | 362.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 77c | 350.57$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…3f8ebacked Yes | 60c | 350$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +182.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 63c | 311.76$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.89 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 48c | 310.75$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.55 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…6e6abacked Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7405…31cabacked Yes | 55c | 285.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 280$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.56 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…d604backed No | 67c | 273.46$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 34c | 265.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 45c | 257.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed No | 11c | 253$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…e1f9backed No | 34c | 237.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…39d2backed Yes | 38c | 211.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…e8d9backed Yes | 55c | 210$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…6ce0backed Yes | 55c | 210$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd3…c255backed Yes | 55c | 201.05$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…239cbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9f…3a55backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Yes | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc7…f5f4backed No | 57c | 190$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 189.86$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 67c | 186.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35ee…202abacked Yes | 35c | 180.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 48c | 172.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…5600backed No | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 38c | 167.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18d0…5407backed Yes | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9067…4563backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 145.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aef…3962backed No | 23c | 144$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…7796backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 38c | 133$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed No | 57c | 129$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 123.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 120.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 52c | 115.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…e621backed Yes | 53c | 111.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…124ebacked Yes | 60c | 107.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f3…ac83backed No | 45c | 105.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…1e41backed No | 43c | 101.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…734dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4456…e35abacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…8c8dbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…56d1backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f75…3018backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…5175backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eef…76bbbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…71efbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed No | 41c | 94.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2251…25a0backed Yes | 73c | 93.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…d85cbacked Yes | 60c | 91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…8dcabacked No | 60c | 90.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 67c | 88.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 17c | 87.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 83.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…f7fcbacked Yes | 37c | 81.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…bb12backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…b771backed No | 59c | 78.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.