Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0b6ce555a817b462f5d76b2b57408bc853a18406f919528fbdb20d1e709403e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Yes | 2c | 4,475$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 20c | 3,470$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.55 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 2,550$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 77c | 2,488$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.23 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,177$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.63 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 1,152$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked Yes | 17c | 979.63$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…ab72backed Yes | 4c | 977.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 12c | 909.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 77c | 838.22$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.79 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…36c4backed No | 79c | 766$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 732.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 699.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 9c | 617.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 2c | 598.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 14c | 578.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 9c | 482.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 70c | 285.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 16c | 283$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…3bc0backed No | 78c | 269.23$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 15c | 262.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 257.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…0cb9backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 197.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…6176backed Yes | 30c | 170.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…23ebbacked No | 71c | 164.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…8c09backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…b88fbacked Yes | 23c | 128.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 116.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…d2d7backed No | 79c | 109.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 21c | 101.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…ce0abacked Yes | 20c | 100.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…1d93backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…8c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…344dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +116%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…fce3backed Yes | 15c | 90.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…f83dbacked Yes | 20c | 88.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 26c | 85.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 64.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c53…a3e4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 61.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…d30bbacked Yes | 23c | 57.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…0854backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19b…b3f8backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478b…53d5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…a4b4backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…2707backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…57ebbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…26eabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 74c | 29.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae1…892fbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0516backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.