Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e5949cb06a2e47e40f62897d75570880be5310a5ba22290a19b2be21535e7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 6,487$3,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,487.11 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 53c | 3,949$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc9…f150backed Yes | 46c | 3,227$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 48c | 2,779$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.6 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 46c | 2,327$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.1 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 50c | 1,872$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.73 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 45c | 1,020$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.56 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 53c | 990.27$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.72 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 667.35$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.89 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…b94bbacked No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 50c | 474.72$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.65 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631d…02ffbacked No | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…2f89backed Yes | 51c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe26c…48f5backed No | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 45c | 379.91$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked Yes | 58c | 312$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 303.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.58 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 295.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ae4abacked No | 35c | 280.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 46c | 251.36$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked No | 46c | 212.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…226ebacked Yes | 39c | 209.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…8912backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b4…8ec9backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 49c | 170.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 138$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 57c | 131.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed Yes | 58c | 129$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…fb7cbacked No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 44c | 118.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 56c | 107.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…ba2fbacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c5…d56bbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…44eebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…1cecbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…1d93backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5d2cbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb87…5742backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…a12ebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…3eabbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216d…a4e1backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb9…badebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…2707backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed Yes | 65c | 97.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222f…e96cbacked Yes | 64c | 92.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…cbb2backed Yes | 44c | 90.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 44c | 85.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes | 43c | 82.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 69.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc9…e105backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…2852backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…8b8dbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 58.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 52c | 58.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 38c | 55.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…8ae7backed Yes | 60c | 53.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…be12backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5c…db6dbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…7678backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…f2f5backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9e…28e1backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…ef7cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…a723backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…7a85backed Yes | 44c | 48.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 59c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…61dcbacked No | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…b114backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 47c | 35.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…b437backed Yes | 52c | 31.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 42c | 31.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 43c | 26.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…1c0fbacked No | 64c | 23.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7570…ffc0backed No | 49c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.