Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc007be1ec183081a5148e2cb7fbb3ffa7e949606e0a5651751701d7bf15ca86f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 11,106$7,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,446.69 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 36c | 10,741$3,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,834.23 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…c90bbacked No | 1c | 6,215$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 21c | 5,077$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,008.56 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 80c | 5,000$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,979.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 38c | 4,790$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.96 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 66c | 4,120$2,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705.83 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 22c | 3,276$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.42 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 68c | 2,568$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.53 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…1da5backed Yes | 29c | 2,028$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 1,909$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 75c | 1,884$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.16 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 2c | 1,630$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…f998backed Yes | 23c | 1,600$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 77c | 1,548$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.47 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x455b…59f2backed No | 74c | 1,512$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 59c | 1,461$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 64c | 1,015$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 2c | 998$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 78c | 824.49$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.1 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 785.89$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.36 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked No | 70c | 779.73$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked No | 65c | 777$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 55c | 703.56$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.85 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 690.85$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.79 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 52c | 613.73$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.87 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 38c | 585.88$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.86 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f3…ac83backed Yes | 43c | 571.81$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed No | 77c | 565.7$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 42c | 544$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.87 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 529.81$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.13 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 43c | 509.59$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.59 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 61c | 491.95$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 468.84$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.62 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 450$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…aa05backed Yes | 24c | 436.58$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.58 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 20c | 423.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.05 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…fa49backed Yes | 29c | 409.68$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +254.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 27c | 399.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.47 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed No | 47c | 369.85$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Yes | 34c | 354.62$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.05 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 18c | 354.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.11 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 337.94$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.12 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 44c | 308.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 34c | 307.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Yes | 35c | 301.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…a075backed Yes | 26c | 295.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…9220backed Yes | 35c | 287.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 47c | 277.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes | 22c | 273.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 35c | 268.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 40c | 249.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked Yes | 46c | 244.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.76 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 41c | 243$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 57c | 201$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a3…57f0backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…5513backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…3d27backed No | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 44c | 193.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd25…f900backed Yes | 44c | 179.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…68bebacked Yes | 29c | 170.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d7…0f30backed Yes | 45c | 158$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 43c | 155.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…e1e0backed Yes | 59c | 152.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 152$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…369cbacked Yes | 24c | 150.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed No | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 145$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…02debacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e5…d2b8backed No | 62c | 140$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed Yes | 38c | 137.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…aec5backed No | 60c | 136.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 136.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 73c | 134.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 39c | 129.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…6cc4backed Yes | 35c | 128.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…1e46backed No | 67c | 126.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec9b…acdfbacked Yes | 40c | 124.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…2bdcbacked Yes | 45c | 122.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 23c | 122$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 45c | 121.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…de14backed Yes | 34c | 120.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 41c | 120.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 42c | 117.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5928backed No | 58c | 114.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…ec5bbacked Yes | 56c | 112.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 41c | 109$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…8782backed Yes | 24c | 107.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 44c | 107$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…0507backed No | 58c | 105.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.