Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe540f8938504d2a03c23d21949b2c86763861dc4fed40431abd1dd7fba92354e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 54c | 11,312$6,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,222.47 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 45c | 10,289$4,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,617.72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 42c | 4,560$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.06 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 3,218$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.16 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked Yes | 54c | 2,200$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 49c | 2,024$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.58 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed Yes | 16c | 1,361$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 6c | 1,298$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 20c | 1,143$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.21 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 850$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd25…f900backed Yes | 41c | 701.44$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 17c | 667.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…b94bbacked No | 33c | 624.34$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 7c | 599.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 530.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked Yes | 27c | 524.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3604…bd45backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…0ca7backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 11c | 467.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 431.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…0672backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…0268backed Yes | 15c | 338.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 45c | 316.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.61 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 52c | 308.67$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.01 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfab0…bd9cbacked No | 61c | 270$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 13c | 263.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Yes | 54c | 254.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 202$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6166…b25abacked Yes | 5c | 201$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 48c | 162$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc9…e105backed No | 34c | 153.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…bda7backed No | 47c | 140.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 46c | 106.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 31c | 92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…b114backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Yes | 15c | 72.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 56c | 64.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 39c | 63.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…ae31backed Yes | 68c | 63.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4456…e35abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…09dabacked Yes | 66c | 60.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…2852backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…a6f9backed Yes | 46c | 58.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 49c | 55.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…930dbacked Yes | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…8c7bbacked Yes | 65c | 51.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 53c | 50.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7570…ffc0backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…4805backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…7678backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…8147backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7668…4562backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 55c | 44.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 54c | 35.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…7a85backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 25.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52d…e814backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…39fcbacked Yes | 64c | 16.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.