Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa809f3f82fa120734182853845ea5094e34a5af91ff948cacb2d11177a2e48fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,431$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 9c | 1,477$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,039$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 18c | 1,014$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.81 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 7c | 495.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 261.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 16c | 225.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…40acbacked Yes | 20c | 175.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 78c | 114$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…f42dbacked Yes | 16c | 92.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…7ddabacked Yes | 30c | 83.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…15a3backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…7621backed No | 78c | 62.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed No | 78c | 57.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 79c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,700 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.