TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes55c8,577$4,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,747.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed No41c5,101$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,016.46683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+73.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked No76c4,034$3,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+314.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed No59c3,402$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No43c2,414$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.221957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No53c2,391$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.011643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed Yes50c2,139$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0603043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78e2…da9dbacked No44c2,023$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.692356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes58c1,839$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.9430837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes32c1,621$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.193831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes47c1,311$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.442313%3 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes40c1,209$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No32c1,144$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.4215855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No38c1,136$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.397462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No45c1,059$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.827548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes18c1,018$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.241024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb46…3692backed No41c1,018$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes73c957.02$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.9124258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No48c951.53$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.536654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc946…1825backed No74c837$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No24c739.75$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.876225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3034…dd88backed Yes70c717.57$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes28c700$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.41926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes65c694.47$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.126437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1e…08f0backed No22c693.52$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No46c681.62$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.1726835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No40c659.24$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.857735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed No38c622.19$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.591546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d00…8af3backed No57c606.44$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes57c550.35$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.993818.4%7 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes55c520.31$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28611647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed No28c515.69$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…2482backed Yes58c514.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe98e…a597backed Yes34c502.5$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.24837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+194.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3057848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes43c499.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.314355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1d3…0560backed No41c499$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…1893backed No10c420.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.455162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c90…1b59backed No41c411$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2adb…3088backed No41c411$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No53c394.4$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.49962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes61c380$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a9c…85b0backed Yes27c379.65$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes40c362.12$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1835341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd206…6f8fbacked No41c360$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e55…01bbbacked No41c360$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb30…51e2backed No41c360$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes78c357.22$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2771631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes39c342.73$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.186126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe512…a0d3backed No41c337$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes66c333.59$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.391741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes30c325.67$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.58837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes57c317.82$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.883237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5d7…87c5backed No41c315$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35dd…75f3backed No46c312.53$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+117%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a66…139ebacked No31c309.79$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc423…7839backed No41c303$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No42c302.5$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.8713128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90f8…3fd6backed Yes61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-74.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes50c298.05$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff73…a11dbacked No38c294.18$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.933557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b05…2317backed Yes51c294.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38ae…aa9bbacked No41c291$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No67c284.3$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.454131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes70c280.43$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2711840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes59c279.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.372035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes46c279.81$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.497518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeffa…94b4backed No33c279.54$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.86955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes47c269.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf98…ffc6backed No37c268.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c266.91$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.65327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes76c265.89$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.074942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked No42c254.33$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.793756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes35c239.35$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3312225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No44c226.95$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.613230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa64…7e3dbacked No38c219.05$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.052343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes65c218.89$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6250…8707backed No61c214.24$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes52c213$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.011844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b4e…93a3backed Yes6c212.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.971250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked No22c200.11$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.331526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002825%7 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea96…73bfbacked Yes66c189$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No26c187.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3314750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c25…414dbacked No21c184.84$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+373.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes39c183.81$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.031957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f7…ebccbacked No25c180.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.112433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes53c175.4$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3441736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c7c…232dbacked Yes31c175.05$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2e2…06fbbacked No59c170.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.472050%10 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes34c164.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.54650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Yes36c163.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6565…2c02backed Yes65c160$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed Yes65c159.91$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No16c159.58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0511225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes40c159.21$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.226136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7092…7b4ebacked No42c158.11$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.11966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No21c157.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.871010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No22c155.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.841039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…7822backed Yes42c154.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.