Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd1df75a50347e4ec77ce31419d4a672a11485ceeef337cc0fbef6bb1edaf1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 55c | 8,577$4,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,747.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 41c | 5,101$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,016.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…53cabacked No | 76c | 4,034$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +314.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed No | 59c | 3,402$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 43c | 2,414$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.22 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 53c | 2,391$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 50c | 2,139$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 44c | 2,023$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.69 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 1,839$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.94 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 1,621$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.19 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 47c | 1,311$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.44 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,209$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 32c | 1,144$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.42 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 38c | 1,136$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.39 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 45c | 1,059$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.82 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,018$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.24 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed No | 41c | 1,018$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 73c | 957.02$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.91 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 48c | 951.53$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.53 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…1825backed No | 74c | 837$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 24c | 739.75$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.87 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed Yes | 70c | 717.57$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 28c | 700$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 65c | 694.47$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.12 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…08f0backed No | 22c | 693.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 46c | 681.62$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.17 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 659.24$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.85 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 38c | 622.19$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…8af3backed No | 57c | 606.44$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 57c | 550.35$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 55c | 520.31$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 28c | 515.69$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…2482backed Yes | 58c | 514.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 34c | 502.5$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 43c | 499.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d3…0560backed No | 41c | 499$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed No | 10c | 420.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.45 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…1b59backed No | 41c | 411$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…3088backed No | 41c | 411$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 53c | 394.4$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 61c | 380$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…85b0backed Yes | 27c | 379.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 40c | 362.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…6f8fbacked No | 41c | 360$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…01bbbacked No | 41c | 360$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb30…51e2backed No | 41c | 360$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 78c | 357.22$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 39c | 342.73$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe512…a0d3backed No | 41c | 337$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 66c | 333.59$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes | 30c | 325.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 57c | 317.82$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…87c5backed No | 41c | 315$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35dd…75f3backed No | 46c | 312.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…139ebacked No | 31c | 309.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…7839backed No | 41c | 303$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 42c | 302.5$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.87 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…3fd6backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes | 50c | 298.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 38c | 294.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…2317backed Yes | 51c | 294.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…aa9bbacked No | 41c | 291$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 67c | 284.3$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 70c | 280.43$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.27 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 59c | 279.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 46c | 279.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeffa…94b4backed No | 33c | 279.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 47c | 269.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf98…ffc6backed No | 37c | 268.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 266.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 76c | 265.89$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 42c | 254.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.79 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 35c | 239.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 44c | 226.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 38c | 219.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.05 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 65c | 218.89$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed No | 61c | 214.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 52c | 213$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…93a3backed Yes | 6c | 212.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 22c | 200.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…73bfbacked Yes | 66c | 189$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 26c | 187.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…414dbacked No | 21c | 184.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +373.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 39c | 183.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked No | 25c | 180.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 175.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…232dbacked Yes | 31c | 175.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked No | 59c | 170.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 34c | 164.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 36c | 163.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…2c02backed Yes | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 65c | 159.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 159.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.05 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 40c | 159.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7092…7b4ebacked No | 42c | 158.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 21c | 157.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 155.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 42c | 154.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.