TailMyPicks
Market

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x270e…53cabacked No63c3,617$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+314.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No49c2,418$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.456654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes57c1,886$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.218055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes34c1,809$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.596437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes13c1,304$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No63c1,133$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.237462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed Yes65c1,070$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.314057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58015855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes25c997.89$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.473831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…ed25backed Yes58c726.28$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.442060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…cb34backed Yes41c700.3$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2903636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes27c700.27$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.181024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7080…1f47backed Yes11c628.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes33c605.87$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0635341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No44c593.15$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.1926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No66c544.96$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.153560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e25…123cbacked No51c512.33$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed No73c497.92$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.874235.7%15 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55f4…4021backed No67c491.72$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0f…e413backed No45c450.89$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ce…f829backed Yes57c439.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.791782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.33per pick49cpaid+124.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa019…5ffdbacked Yes49c405.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0639…75c6backed Yes60c404.99$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.041070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+40.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes62c391.91$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.981770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No52c385.89$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.911643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…679ebacked No58c364.05$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.071560%9 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a00…60aabacked Yes64c311.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb9…c1f3backed Yes56c300.91$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No33c291.33$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.246225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes52c291.09$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.072352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ba…4cedbacked No53c260.44$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.481428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-56.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes12c260.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4713128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd82…8f2abacked No39c260$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes58c249.3$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.976640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes57c249.2$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0412225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes37c211.66$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.875655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No40c211.56$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.267735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked No36c191.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.161526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes48c191.31$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6430837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd116…be32backed Yes37c176.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.922060%12 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No40c165.11$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.074628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703d…80f6backed No63c164.49$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.12934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.9wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7930…b208backed No40c164.29$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.291361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick33cpaid+59.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbe22…e0d5backed Yes50c161.4$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked No41c154.09$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.141435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No30c151.43$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1069962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7092…7b4ebacked No40c150.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.72966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes15c149.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.943658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816f…5ad2backed No69c147.63$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-63.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes68c141.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.681650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe26…23d1backed Yes67c133.53$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec1e…9153backed No36c131.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No75c126.44$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3311840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes45c125.13$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8311645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed Yes38c123.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.536944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes33c122.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.316136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7da0…83f0backed Yes65c113.89$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes51c113.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.334544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ebd…1c5dbacked No72c101.13$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No36c100.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.451936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe25e…3f31backed No43c99.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+40.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed No62c95$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.43680.6%29 W · 7 L+10.1wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4eb6…5517backed No30c93.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f28…13d6backed No34c88.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.241060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes44c81.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7729416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1c00…101dbacked Yes53c79.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.36757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes54c72.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.729341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a9c…85b0backed Yes64c72.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2675…5bf9backed Yes70c71.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2b…72a9backed Yes17c70.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No31c64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.161323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes51c61.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312638.5%10 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No50c60.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.496142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No67c59.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.67656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b2…da22backed No42c57.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.232254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Yes40c55.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.295147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4b…83e2backed Yes64c54.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5779…f812backed No59c54.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ae…40b0backed No41c53.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+89.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No65c53.01$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.83050%15 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdf…ac87backed No42c50.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.442445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked No42c50.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.15771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes46c49.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.776349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55f…b083backed Yes57c49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.93366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…a6cbbacked No41c48.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb9e…11d4backed No63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.621338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-46.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf823…5a6dbacked No74c46.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.19757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes30c44.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes48c44.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No35c44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Yes49c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…0738backed No48c41.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.92757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No32c41.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.243246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a1…5645backed Yes43c40.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.216142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f2…e77abacked No64c40.09$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.39850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…443bbacked No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes63c39.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.382955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes51c39.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.