Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc0c49c13e6138335627e7a3f43ec891cfe6ab7a8abba1e960d2a87b1fe5274d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 55c | 3,440$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.63 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 64c | 3,324$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.83 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 56c | 2,816$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.87 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 40c | 2,348$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.23 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad82…1075backed No | 22c | 2,195$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…08c5backed Yes | 70c | 1,790$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 61c | 1,186$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.41 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 65c | 1,081$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.62 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 48c | 1,046$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 33c | 967.44$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.74 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 23c | 939.22$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.17 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 65c | 822.64$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.48 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…d324backed No | 71c | 803.95$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 769.8$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 720.46$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.93 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 31c | 713.16$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.13 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 49c | 687.85$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 31c | 656.5$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.96 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 79c | 620.53$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 20c | 619.28$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 16c | 610.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 23c | 605.22$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed Yes | 33c | 575.06$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 41c | 572.07$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.87 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed No | 35c | 567.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +211.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 39c | 539.38$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.11 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 37c | 534.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 63c | 513$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 32c | 485.03$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 458$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 30c | 397.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.63 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 38c | 373.02$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.61 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…f6b3backed Yes | 26c | 365.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 362.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.72 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 57c | 350.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes | 15c | 332.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 74c | 330$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…40e4backed No | 30c | 328.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 34c | 324.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.48 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 63c | 319.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…886ebacked No | 32c | 317.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 29c | 314.22$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b54…abd2backed No | 68c | 294.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed No | 70c | 285.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…89f6backed No | 23c | 284$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 34c | 275.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 41c | 269.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 260.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 61c | 260$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 64c | 254.11$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 64c | 251.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 28c | 250$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 63c | 235.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 228.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 24c | 217.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 18c | 215$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 33c | 212.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 212.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 30c | 205$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed Yes | 70c | 199.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 66c | 199.93$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 22c | 191$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 29c | 183.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.04 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 20c | 180.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 28c | 179.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…52a2backed No | 45c | 171.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 168.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…3da6backed Yes | 61c | 164.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0061…5562backed No | 62c | 161.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…fae7backed No | 62c | 160.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…7c49backed No | 63c | 158.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…11c4backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 18c | 152.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 143.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…dcd6backed No | 67c | 134.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked No | 58c | 132.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…faa6backed Yes | 61c | 131.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 71c | 129.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 62c | 128.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 30c | 125$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 42c | 117.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 24c | 116.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 47c | 115.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…0a9bbacked Yes | 17c | 112.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 45c | 111.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 17c | 106.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 105.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec0…f663backed No | 36c | 100.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 32c | 100.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…0027backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ab…6b01backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 32c | 99.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.