TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,592 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d5c…55dfbacked No55c3,440$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.633560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes64c3,324$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.8324258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked Yes56c2,816$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.874153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes40c2,348$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.238549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad82…1075backed No22c2,195$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+48.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed Yes70c1,790$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes61c1,186$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.412313%3 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Yes65c1,081$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.62128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-89.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes48c1,046$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No33c967.44$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.7435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes23c939.22$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.177848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No65c822.64$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.489962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a81…d324backed No71c803.95$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes19c769.8$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.57518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes25c720.46$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9313128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked No31c713.16$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.1311645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes49c687.85$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.511637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes31c656.5$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes79c620.53$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.871729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes20c619.28$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.034942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes16c610.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.971926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes23c605.22$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.426437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…7a98backed Yes33c575.06$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.871250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No41c572.07$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.874050%20 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d74…3163backed No35c567.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.774100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+211.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No39c539.38$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.1111840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce83…5b97backed No37c534.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.41464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No63c513$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1907462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7930…b208backed No32c485.03$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.411361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick33cpaid+59.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes25c458$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.035327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca08…1267backed No30c397.54$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.634330.2%13 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b7…0b0dbacked No38c373.02$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.617638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0117…f6b3backed Yes26c365.37$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.81425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c362.33$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.728510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No57c350.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes15c332.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No74c330$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa2a…40e4backed No30c328.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed No34c324.56$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.486640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e8…c464backed No63c319.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.76955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d4…886ebacked No32c317.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.071668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes29c314.22$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.153818.4%7 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b54…abd2backed No68c294.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x139e…9a26backed No70c285.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.96955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…89f6backed No23c284$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d43…f5a9backed No34c275.81$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.363246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No41c269.78$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.822321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c260.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8241736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31a8…8edebacked No61c260$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.43545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No64c254.11$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.116654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed No64c251.19$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.191631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No28c250$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.56225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeb2…376dbacked No63c235.62$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.271566.7%10 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No46c228.43$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.737735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No24c217.35$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.686126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed Yes18c215$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked No33c212.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.726136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes32c212.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9511225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes30c205$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.058639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes70c199.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.991233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes66c199.93$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.061154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed No22c191$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.986442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a1…5645backed No29c183.55$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.046142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…d677backed Yes20c180.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+108.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No28c179.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.646142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x258a…52a2backed No45c171.11$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.711353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c168.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf66d…3da6backed Yes61c164.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0061…5562backed No62c161.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa009…fae7backed No62c160.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fee…7c49backed No63c158.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6129…11c4backed Yes16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No18c152.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.958652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes79c150$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.55561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c143.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2417232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d30…dcd6backed No67c134.83$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.83742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…22cbbacked No58c132.44$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad3…faa6backed Yes61c131.92$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.92070%14 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes71c129.95$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.232035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No62c128.55$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.551050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe50…6eb6backed No30c125$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875352.8%28 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes42c117.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.292650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes24c116.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.462646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes47c115.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.865117.6%9 W · 42 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-61.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8784…0a9bbacked Yes17c112.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No45c111.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes17c106.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No37c105.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2726835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes50c104$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.761471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+121.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ec0…f663backed No36c100.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.362152.4%11 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+31.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes32c100.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.562425%6 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+101.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+39.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392825%7 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3b0…0027backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-59.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0ab…6b01backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa0…72d6backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes32c99.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.