Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db4e934b09c35f6b28dbf20fb18ee60998e8cc2cfa2450308ed7121ea04b949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 77c | 1,820$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.3 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 20c | 656.66$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.51 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 24c | 584.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.95 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 490.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 400.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 78c | 334.08$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 19c | 310.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5057backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 22c | 289.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 19c | 269$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…4021backed No | 22c | 248.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…9153backed No | 28c | 172.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 23c | 148.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…073bbacked No | 20c | 146.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 25c | 79.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 31c | 67.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 46c | 65.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 77c | 58.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 20c | 54.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 22c | 52.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…3797backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 77c | 32.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 74c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…b9cdbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.