Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x018fd900f3ed004fe2c920baa488a853dab3cf7a6354123a8ffc46a88c34f20b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 77c | 2,470$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.91 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 69c | 2,432$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.88 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 1,485$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.88 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…ef71backed No | 2c | 1,222$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,059$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…4021backed No | 22c | 976.69$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 40c | 834.53$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.97 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 24c | 697.89$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 558.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 56c | 530.82$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.36 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 27c | 520.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 15c | 507.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…27aabacked No | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed Yes | 62c | 455.37$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…9153backed No | 25c | 402.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 21c | 331.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 24c | 307.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.38 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed No | 39c | 305.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ba…4cedbacked No | 27c | 299.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 71c | 257.62$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 30c | 235.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 46c | 216.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 175.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 27c | 154.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 143.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 54c | 108.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…75c6backed Yes | 61c | 108$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked No | 21c | 96.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 75c | 96.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x816f…5ad2backed No | 36c | 83.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed Yes | 17c | 78.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6e…fdb4backed No | 65c | 77.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…3f31backed No | 41c | 73.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…f812backed Yes | 56c | 62.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…c497backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd82…8f2abacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 70c | 45.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…abf8backed No | 74c | 40.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…073bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 64c | 27.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 73c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.