IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c8fddd383b6a1d5dead8cc627d10e064848168e70b282864e2a464925938c47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 21c | 3,934$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 78c | 3,160$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 32c | 2,217$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 25c | 1,875$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.24 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c28…a1eabacked No | 6c | 1,335$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 12c | 1,123$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 10c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…3dd1backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 64c | 962.65$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed No | 7c | 846.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked No | 11c | 830$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 11c | 806.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 750.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed No | 19c | 749$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed No | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 669.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…7389backed No | 15c | 664.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 28c | 607.35$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…7621backed No | 9c | 592.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 20c | 547.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…faffbacked No | 10c | 514.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed No | 10c | 495.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 64c | 391$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.93 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 360$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 65c | 327.88$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed No | 74c | 307.82$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 15c | 301.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 7c | 279.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 31c | 251.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…2d46backed Yes | 76c | 251.72$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 15c | 250.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 18c | 245$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d397backed No | 40c | 208$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 44c | 198.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 42c | 191.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…325dbacked No | 38c | 180$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 22c | 178.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 169.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 42c | 162.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 41c | 155$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 73c | 150.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…d342backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 34c | 147.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 143$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 11c | 143$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 133$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 19c | 118$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed No | 11c | 112.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…ffaabacked No | 13c | 111.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 64c | 110.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 24c | 106.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 70c | 102.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60b…72c7backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 30c | 97.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…1dfbbacked No | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 30c | 93.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 31c | 87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…0fe1backed No | 38c | 82.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 72c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…ab48backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 76.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 23c | 71.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 23c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 73c | 69.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…0507backed Yes | 73c | 67.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddd…c594backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…c0dfbacked No | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed No | 37c | 59.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…113ebacked Yes | 76c | 58.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…204ebacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 67c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed No | 40c | 46.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…0535backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fe…bad3backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…8bfbbacked Yes | 30c | 35.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb0…8a46backed No | 42c | 35.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 48c | 32.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed No | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 40c | 26.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Yes | 60c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa367…df5cbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.