IPO · resolved market
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ca232bff9ff9d66cc6dafbe540b2288fceb7d08bb92c439f812479e962844bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 13c | 3,688$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.49 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 2,850$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.5 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…818bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…8901backed Yes | 6c | 1,277$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 1,190$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.89 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289b…ded5backed Yes | 5c | 1,113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 18c | 999.98$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 763.57$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 750.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 79c | 723.61$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 8c | 643.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 16c | 540.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 26c | 499.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…8d9cbacked Yes | 7c | 420$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 402$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 27c | 397.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 355$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 7c | 339.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 246.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 178.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 10c | 175.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 126.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 121.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 119.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 22c | 112.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 80c | 102.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…d0e9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 83.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 26c | 75.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…8bfbbacked Yes | 25c | 68.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 66.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 26c | 56.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…c0dfbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…b324backed Yes | 27c | 39.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 13.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Cerebras not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.