TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,573 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No1c36,972$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.072343.5%10 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No54c2,408$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.5793840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed Yes80c1,850$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,371$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.11,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2288…8f5fbacked Yes49c1,150$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.57100%7 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+93%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Yes57c1,058$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.691850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No71c1,055$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.58650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No20c995.57$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.184122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes46c935.51$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.9315446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No51c927.03$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.16848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes50c818.27$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.3129747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No2c572.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.131246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed Yes49c489.78$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes36c487.18$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.891,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No14c454.53$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.25442.6%23 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b5fbacked No67c449.97$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4830%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x128e…8ae7backed Yes70c433.88$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.081560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2085662.5%35 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No67c350$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.53842.1%16 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-37.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No12c318.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7427322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes46c288$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5213131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1357838.5%30 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+72%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes47c237$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6134534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed Yes75c209.94$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.844957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfff1…5e20backed No53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1088353%44 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc72…226ebacked Yes51c162.53$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No68c155.88$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10635334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No51c122.02$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2311133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Yes76c119.78$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1717752%92 W · 85 L+20.4wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked No44c109.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No35c105.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.552128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c105$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.951,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7570…ffc0backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…1a8ebacked No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x663f…5e71backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3b…8c8dbacked No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No15c92.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2418540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes49c90.02$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c86.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3121815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes53c81.12$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d5…09d5backed No55c80.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1c2…0c32backed No52c62.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.251442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad6e…9244backed Yes41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.41464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5080…d89abacked Yes46c58.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed No55c58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.691747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes76c56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.686150.8%31 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No36c55.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes30c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+57.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x211b…1872backed No53c51.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0899…0507backed No54c50.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f42…8680backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceae…2f49backed No24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-76.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e8…1765backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+50%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfb5…cf85backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1762…c890backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bed…00d7backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5e…ff63backed No26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ae…82aabacked No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20c7…2027backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07df…7b2dbacked No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9693…1c29backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0678…5e7abacked No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe56…6cebbacked Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No46c48.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.25337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed Yes45c46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.31369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes48c44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.886933.3%23 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes41c43.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.714526.7%12 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No28c43.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1623323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c3a…f5dbbacked Yes47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.552020%4 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c43…cbb2backed Yes51c39.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52fd…2ab7backed No35c37.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132119%4 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c36.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8430839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa743…61dcbacked Yes47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.911361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.25731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes70c18.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.553455.9%19 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.616276.5%124 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.