Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa22bd50b3f3864b0383366f5df3818328f4abf55ebd1bc19bf64652baec896a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 33c | 2,064$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.83 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 61c | 1,361$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.75 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 1,165$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.01 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…8f5fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 5c | 942.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 27c | 712$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.24 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 62c | 711.48$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.36 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 40c | 512.29$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.92 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 60c | 427.31$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.92 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 23c | 326.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 38c | 293.04$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.23 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…36afbacked No | 27c | 264.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 66c | 249.94$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 26c | 179.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 153$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 51c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 49cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed Yes | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 23c | 94.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 54.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…3966backed No | 45c | 50.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…47e8backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…2807backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…0564backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd059…4bd5backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…6d22backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…8c09backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…f2f5backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…9b29backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…dd00backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 46c | 45.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.