Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad6355dc9ece9a55cf5e270e755572311eabe56923aff74889efe63426712af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 32c | 3,511$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.51 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 67c | 2,500$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 1,133$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.8 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…2150backed Yes | 9c | 1,103$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 63c | 982.51$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.54 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 72c | 969.66$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.51 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…8ae7backed Yes | 75c | 759.88$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 14c | 719.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 5c | 652.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 36c | 582$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.08 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…9220backed Yes | 17c | 537.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Yes | 51c | 430$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed Yes | 70c | 425$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 40c | 391.17$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.34 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 16c | 368$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…1a88backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 255.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 239.64$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 79c | 200.35$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked Yes | 16c | 169.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 13c | 160.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf196…8c47backed Yes | 77c | 129.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764c…fa01backed No | 16c | 119.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…78adbacked Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…3225backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4957…1d35backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3a…f5dbbacked Yes | 24c | 83.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…a301backed Yes | 24c | 70.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 19c | 70.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes | 75c | 13.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $98 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $78 in May?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.