Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7d26de473299be9802a1425118d17e3469811fb62f994dad0a92285cca9c15a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 19c | 5,450$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.42 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed No | 56c | 5,347$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 2,936$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.16 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 11c | 2,678$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 21c | 2,347$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.28 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes | 43c | 1,070$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 19c | 999.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 16c | 798$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Yes | 13c | 612.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 19c | 600$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -71%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 9c | 388.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Yes | 17c | 382.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 15c | 318.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 14c | 299.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 285.79$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 13c | 263$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…448ebacked Yes | 43c | 250$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 46c | 195.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Yes | 12c | 191.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 176.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 44c | 153.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 18c | 149$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 23c | 142.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 141$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked Yes | 45c | 140.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 14c | 132.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 15c | 131.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 15c | 102.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…0350backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 16c | 90.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…45d6backed Yes | 17c | 87.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 78c | 80.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 73.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 16c | 70.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 25c | 65.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 22c | 59.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Yes | 19c | 58.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 56c | 57.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 284 | 64.8%184 W · 100 L | +29.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…40b8backed Yes | 46c | 53.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 50.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…e528backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 273 | 37%101 W · 172 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 56c | 39.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 57c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 54c | 24.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 78c | 21.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 70c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 77c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.